Orb Analytics Week 5 Preview – Picks & Insights
If you missed the announcement on Wednesday, the Friday Newsletter as we know it got too long and will be cut into two parts moving forward. The first half being the recap of the previous round of picks, and the second half, this part being our model’s picks for the upcoming Sunday. The week 4 recap showing the Orb’s impressive 6-1 week against the spread can be found linked here. I will play around with what the Friday posts look like other than just the picks themselves to see what works and what our readers enjoy. Our models hit in overtime last night on the Falcons and now find themselves 13-7, with a 65.0% hit rate against the spread this season heading into Sunday’s slate. This also extends our winning streak of premium (non-Sunday) picks to four in a row. The Orb will look to make it 5 as all our models agree on both a spread and moneyline pick for Monday Night Football. In the meantime, with a +1.678 unit start to the weekend from Atlanta, I have looked into the Orb, and here is what it predicts will happen on Sunday 🔮:
Spread:
Falcons -1.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Ravens -2.5
Panthers +3.5
Bills -1.5
Chiefs/Saints (MNF - Premium)
Moneyline:
Falcons (TNF - Premium) ✅
Vikings
Ravens
Panthers
Bills
49ers
Seahawks
Chiefs/Saints (MNF - Premium)
Our models have hit their last two underdog moneyline picks (Giants over Browns in week 3 at +250 odds, Colts over Steelers in week 4 at +104 odds) and are now looking to add a 3rd as all three models are back to their old ways and picking the Carolina Panthers to upset the Bears in Chicago at +168 odds. Every time the Orb is out on Carolina, they pull us back in. But the argument here is that the week 5 Panthers aren’t the same team they were in weeks 1 and 2. Our paid subscribers saw a similar graph in Thursday Night’s premium pick blog, but the one below shows the top 5 upward trending offenses by EPA/Game since Andy Dalton took over from Bryce Young in week 3:
In just a small sample size of two weeks, the Red Rifle has increased this offense's efficiency by 15.2 expected points added per game, the most in the league in that time. Now, Chicago is also clearly headed in the right direction as they rank tied-4th and are starting to see flashes from the man that Bryce was indirectly traded for. Chicago’s defense is for real and has a lot of impressive stats to back up what Bears fans see on the field each week. But after correctly picking against the Panthers on the spread and moneyline last week vs the Bengals, our models see a lot of value in Carolina now that they are moving the ball. Hitting three +money underdog picks in a row is by definition improbable, but using predictive modeling to try and increase the odds in our favor is the whole point of the the Orb project.
The other two spread predictions the Orb is making for Sunday feel like ‘square’ picks. Particularly the Ravens who are coming off a Sunday night beatdown of the Bills for the whole world to see. This pick is buying as high as possible on a team that is now going into Cincinnati to play a divisional rival on the road. The good news is that the Ravens do rank in the top 2 or 3 in essentially every advanced offensive statistic and their defense may be starting to round into form. In the other game, you could argue the models are buying low on the Bills who were on the other side of that Sunday Night Baltimore win. Houston needed last-minute heroics from CJ Stroud to beat the now 0-4 Jaguars in a game they probably should have lost. So the public perception of the Texans was potentially saved on the game-winning drive and the models could be selling high on a team that is 3-1 but hasn’t quite played up to expectations yet. Joe Mixon is listed as questionable to return for this one after missing the last two games which would be a big boost for Houston’s run game.
Which of the Orb’s spread picks on Sunday do you feel the best about?
We have some exciting Orb news! The NBA season very sneakily tips off this month and our basketball guys are hitting the ground running with hoops content and are starting the first-ever Orb Analytics podcast. Our very own Mickey Swish and the Vibe Navigator will be hitting the airways to talk NBA games, storylines, and picks throughout the year. If you enjoyed their writing during last season’s NBA playoffs or haven’t seen their work yet and are in the market for new voices to listen to, check them out on ‘Dishing and Swishing.’ We will be posting their podcasts in the NBA section of our Substack, as well as on Spotify and YouTube. You can find their first episode below:
Substack: https://orbanalytics.substack.com/p/episode-1-welcome-to-the-pod-b05
Spotify:
Youtube:
- Team Orb Analytics
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