Orb Analytics Week 4 Recap – Performance & Results
It finally happened! Our weekly newsletter got too long and hit some of Substack’s limits which meant we had to start cutting out analysis and graphics. The newsletter as we know it naturally has two halves to it so we finally will be splitting it in two moving forward. This half will include the results from the Orb’s previous week of picks, our season-long model performance, and any other analysis that may pop up along the way. We will then send out the picks for Sunday’s games on Fridays. You are still getting all the same information just broken into two. There are some details we are still playing around with like the timing of this portion and what the Friday content will look like specifically other than the Orb’s picks. Paid subscribers, this will not impact the cadence of the Thursday Night Premium picks or Snapshot Analysis with Model Value. Our apologies for changing things up here and hitting your inbox with an unexpected mid-week Orb post but we want to continue to deliver our best work and believe this is the best path to do so moving forward. Thank you for understanding!
The Orb had another great performance in week 4! The individual models had what I believe to be their best week ever against the spread and in doing so combined for our tied-largest +unit performance on spread picks. The Orb’s official spread picks went 6-1 for a +4.454 unit week. We hit this unit mark twice last season in weeks 4 and 7 but have yet to beat it. So maybe week 4’s are just our favorite time of year. The quest for a perfect week against the spread will once again have to wait as the models did miss on the Packers to win and cover at home. Andy Diamonds and I had to sweat out a few of the winning picks over text, but at least our one spread that missed was dead in the first quarter. Sometimes it's nice to know right away rather than be let down in the closing seconds of the game.
Underdogs once again dominated this week as they covered in 10/16 games. Favorites got the slight edge on the moneyline as they won 9/16 games outright, but still far below the historical 68% win rate they typically do. Thankfully our models were able to predict two of the six favorites who did cover as it hit on the Bengals and Falcons but missed on the Packers. I’ve talked before about how sometimes the ‘right’ pick can miss. We don’t run simulations here but in this game, we are trying to predict the most likely outcome against the spread and this doesn’t always match the one we see play out on the field. So we may have the math on our side for an outcome that would happen at least 6/10 times but then one of the other 4 happens in reality. This is all to highlight we had the ‘wrong’ pick hit for us with the Falcons -1.5 and moneyline. Atlanta scored zero (0) offensive touchdowns and needed the rarely seen muffed-punt-touchdown and a pick-6 just to earn the chance at a last-minute 58-yard winning field goal. So we happily take the winning prediction and units that come along with it but fully recognize that while sometimes our picks get an unlucky break and it is easier to highlight those, we also win some that we shouldn’t. We also learned the important lesson of closing line value with this one. Between when we gave out the pick and kickoff the line moved from Falcons -1.5 to Falcons -2.5. In a 26-24 finish, the difference between a winning bet would have been when you placed it. I started posting the Orb’s Sunday picks to Action Network closer to game time and had to log this one as -2.5 so while we got the official win, our record there looks worse because of the closing line. Lesson learned! This exact ramble could also have been about how we shouldn’t have been right about the Giants +5.5 to start out the week but I would argue that the game should have been closer heading into the missed field goal at the end. Here is how each pick went for the Orb in week 4:
Spread:
Giants +5.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Bengals -4.5 ✅
Broncos +7.5 ✅
Falcons -1.5 ✅
Packers -2.5 ❌
Jaguars +6.5 ✅
Colts +1.5 ✅
All spread picks: 6-1, 85.7%, +4.454 units
Moneyline:
Bengals ✅
Jets ❌
Falcons ✅
Packers ❌
Colts ✅
Eagles ❌
49ers ✅
Chiefs ✅
All moneyline picks: 5-3, 62.5%, -0.385 units
Overall +4.069 units.
Week 4 Model Performance:
Favorites covered 6/16 games (37.5%) and won 9/16 outright (56.3%).
Weekly spreads:
Weekly Moneyline:
Season-To-Date Model Performance:
Not including week 1, favorites have covered 19/48 games (39.6%) and won 25/48 (52.1%) outright this season.
Season spreads:
Season moneyline:
Official Orb Picks Season Results:
Season spread picks: 12-7, 63.2%, +3.908 units
Season moneyline picks: 13-12, 52.0%, -2.358 units
Moneyline picks continue to be more difficult for our models than spread predictions. With favorites winning just 52.1% of the time since week 2 the Orb is doing well in predicting underdogs to cover but getting killed on favorite moneyline picks. So it is fantastic to see our spread models hitting at such a high rate and sitting just below +4 units on the season but unfortunately, the overall record is being dragged down by the moneyline modes. But this is nitpicking and we have nothing but gratitude for how the last two weeks have gone for the Orb. After digging ourselves in a -6.7 unit hole and going 1-4 against the spread in week 2, the official start of the Orb season, our models have responded. In the last two weeks, the Orb has gone 5-2 and 6-1 respectively against the spread for a total of 11-3 since week 2. This brings our early season hit rate to 63.2%, above our 52.4% target line. As you can see above, this has powered us to being +unit overall for the first time this season! We aren’t out of the woods just yet though. A +1.5 unit cushion isn’t anything to take to the bank. An average week 5 of hitting at or below 50% could easily see us back under the -unit line but we are certainly in a better place than we were just two weeks ago. Last season, week 5 was our worst week overall as the Orb had a -4.6 unit performance. Our models were on the underdogs and favorites dominated covering and winning 9/14 games. Could this be the week we finally see favorites fight back or is the play of blindly taking underdogs to cover to win outright going to continue to be a winning strategy?
Thank you again for allowing us to split up the lengthy newsletter and taking up one more spot in your inbox. And even more so, thank you for all the support so far this NFL season! We are seeing more and more people coming to the page and becoming free subscribers to our Sunday picks. If you want all the picks our models make for non-Sunday games and additional Snapshot Analysis, or you just enjoy our work and want to support the folks at the Orb further, consider upgrading to a paid subscription!
- Team Orb Analytics
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