2024 Fantasy Football Projections - Running Backs
Photo by Michael Zagaris/Getty Images
Orb Faithful,
Following last week's analysis of wide receivers, it's now time to turn our attention towards running backs. Once again, photos of the analysis will be posted below, followed by a written analysis. Ordered by PPR differential, with non-PPR rankings provided as well, the statistics provided look to compare fantasy gambling predictions with those of ESPN’s fantasy database. All of which will provide you with insight into both, under and overvalued running backs, using the assumption that a sports book has more accurate predictions of player stats in comparison to ESPN.
Photos of my analysis are pictured below:
 Beginning with the AFC East, I am not buying into the hype surrounding Breece Hall, even if he has one of the top differentials on this list (39.236). Despite playing in all 17 games this past year, Breece Hall has already endured some injuries throughout his short career so far, and while he may be very talented, I believe he is being overvalued in many fantasy drafts. Alternatively, I can see Hall’s backup, Braelon Allen, likely getting his fair share of carries in the backfield, ultimately taking away from Hall’s value, especially when considering Non-PPR leagues. One back I am buying into is Rhamondre Stevenson, a strong power back, who has earned his starting spot on the Patriots, as well as a hefty new contract. While the Patriots have been struggling, especially on offense, since Brady’s departure, Stevenson has been one of the only bright spots in a disappointing offense. With this being said, I am personally looking to draft Stevenson, especially in my Non-PPR leagues, as Antonio Gibson should serve as the Patriots' main receiving back this season.
Following exciting rookie seasons, three running backs I expect to satisfy fantasy owners are; Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all of whom fall at the top of our list. Beginning with my favorite of the three, Bijan Robinson has long been thought of as an NFL talent, far before joining the league. Although he may not have eclipsed one thousand rushing yards, or put up the same statistics as Achane and Gibbs, I am expecting him to take a HUGE leap ahead of this season. Not only does he have the traits of a hall-of-fame running back, but his ability to make plays in the backfield and on the receiving end proves him to be a versatile threat, and I highly advise you to draft him if given the chance. For De’Von Achane, who not only proved he can run the ball effectively but also showed that he can outrun just about anyone. Additionally, his aging counterpart Raheem Mostert has already dealt with tons of injuries throughout his career, which makes me even more confident in his role on the Dolphins this season. Similar to Robinson and Achane, Gibbs is another highly versatile player who is used just as much out of the backfield as he is through the air. That being said, good things happen when he is given the ball, as he was able to finish as a top running back last season, despite splitting snaps with David Montgomery last season, who might I add, also had a fantastic fantasy season last year. Further, Gibbs is able to make the most of his opportunities, and I expect him to receive an increased workload heading into his second year with the Detroit Lions.
This offseason we’ve seen a lot of familiar faces find new homes, and while I tend to avoid drafting running backs that are forced to find new teams, I am quite optimistic about Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley. By signing with Green Bay, Josh Jacobs has joined a well-established offense that tends to lean on its running game, and with AJ Dillon potentially finding a new team, and Aaron Jones signing with the Vikings, Josh Jacobs will be carrying the load on offense for Green Bay. And with Jordan Love’s recent success, it is apparent that the Packers have looked to provide him with a more powerful rushing attack, and by signing Jacobs. On the other hand, the Eagles made a huge decision this offseason by signing Saquon Barkley and letting Deandre Swift walk in free agency. Despite having an impressive season last year, it's clear that Philadelphia wants to bolster its rushing attack and take some of that load off Jalen Hurts’ shoulders. Ultimately this move makes Philly’s offense far more dynamic and unpredictable than it already was. While Barkley didn’t quite live up to the hype last season, he joins an Eagles team with a far better offensive line than he has previously played with in his career, therefore I don't expect much of a struggle from Barkley to fill up the stat sheet.
In terms of running backs I am looking to avoid ahead of my fantasy drafts, a couple of names that come to mind are Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler, both of whom found new homes this year for Tony Pollard, who has joined a power running team, which is ultimately not one of Pollard’s strengths. At the end of the day, I don't expect him to fill the shoes of Derrick Henry, who up until now, led one of the best downhill rushing attacks in the league. This being said I don't expect Pollard to fit well into this system, even with the Titans moving on from Mike Vrabel this offseason. As for Austin Ekeler, he joins the Washington Commanders who are notorious for having injuries occur on their home field, which poses a huge threat to Ekeler’s season in my mind. Additionally, I have also seen Ekeler deal with injuries over the past few years while also losing much of his speed. Ultimately making him one of the riskiest running back selections going in this year's season. Two other players who have a lot of potential for this year are Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry, both of whom are joining teams that will be looking to pound the rock this year. This being said, both players are heading towards the end of their careers and have already endured a lot of mileage in their careers, making them potentially risky draft picks in my mind.
Wrapping this article up, I’d like to finish by naming some players who have the potential to break out this season and may be worth a later-round pick. The first is Blake Corum, who sits in the top ten on our list, despite being a backup. While Kyren Williams had a phenomenal season last year, our analysis is predicting him to underperform, meaning there is a likelihood that Corum could wind up receiving more carries than we have anticipated. Brian Robinson is another player who I have long been a fan of, who I also expect to outperform his projections for this year, especially with Austin Ekeler being his counterpart in the backfield. While Robinson hasn’t had a breakout year quite yet, I think that he has the chance to take on the lead role out of the backfield, which I personally feel he has already earned. Being a stronger running back from Alabama, and playing in an offense with a rookie quarterback, I see the Commanders running the ball more often than not, with a young Brian Robinson serving as the team's workhorse. Lastly, I would like to discuss one last player who I have long been a fan of, far before he was in the league, that being Deuce Vaughn. While he hardly got any touches out of the backfield and may be one of the smallest players in the league, he showed tremendous talent in college, both in the receiving and the run game. Considering that the Cowboys no longer have Tony Pollard, I am hoping that they will now turn to Vaughn for help out of the backfield. While I also could see him serving primarily as a utility guy getting 3rd down snaps, I still believe he could make the most of these touches. Even if he isn’t worthy of starting early on, I believe he will get an increased role as the season progresses, as he was truly one of the most explosive guys in college football for several years. Don't believe me? Go watch the tape!
If you missed the previous position group breakdowns you can find them on the links below:
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