2024 Fantasy Football Projections - Quarterbacks
Orb Faithful,
With the NBA and NHL seasons ending, it is time to turn our focus back to the NFL and start gearing up for the season. Most of my updates this offseason have included announcing new members of the Orb team and this post is no different. We are thrilled to share that we have a college intern joining the Orb for the summer! He is a fellow data nerd in training who is studying analytics and is also a huge NFL fan. A lot of his work this summer will be helping me behind the scenes, getting real-world experience with data automation and modeling in the world of sports. However, I wanted to start him out with a project that is more interesting and creative. We haven’t gotten into the fantasy football side of the NFL much at the Orb yet, but just like sportsbooks, it is a whole world of data to mine into. For his first project, I wanted to have him tap into fantasy football data so we could compare it against what the sportsbooks have. Nowadays you can gamble on anything when it comes to player stats for the upcoming season. Vegas has lines on every stat that equates to scoring in fantasy football. So our intern calculated how each player would score in fantasy football if they hit the totals set by the sportsbooks. Meaning if Vegas set a wide receiver’s season totals to over/under 90 receptions, 850 yards, and 5 touchdowns he calculated what this translated to in fantasy scoring. From here, he was able to compare this calculated projection to the already existing projection on the fantasy websites. For this analysis, I gave him the assumption that sportsbooks have more accurate lines than fantasy websites and therefore we can look for what players are ‘overrated’ and ‘underrated’ on fantasy draft websites. We of course won’t know which projections are more accurate until the end of the season, but with the assumptions I gave him, let’s take a look at what players might be worth targeting or avoiding in your upcoming fantasy draft according to Las Vegas.
There is too much interesting analysis for it to fit into one article so we are going to break it down by position group, starting with quarterbacks. But before we dive into the numbers and analysis from our intern, this post is presented and sponsored by the KART Fantasy Football League!
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2024 Fantasy QB Comparison
With preseason upcoming, we are diving deep into the fantasy football world and leading you to victory. By collecting data from ESPN’s 2024 Fantasy projections, and comparing it with Fanduel's projections on numberFire.com, I was able to analyze what players ESPN is over/undervaluing. Although all of this analysis lies under the assumption that a sportsbook, such as Fanduel, is able to project player stat lines more accurately than ESPN. Despite this, I have a ton of faith in the following analysis.
In order to scrape all of this data together, I had to follow two different processes with each website. Although ESPN’s website did not allow you to export its data efficiently, I was able to manually copy and paste all of the data for each position group and properly clean it, which allowed me to create ordered tables with said data. While numberFire did allow me to easily copy and paste their data, it got tricky when I noticed that their data was split between week one projections and remaining year projections. After a lot of comparison between the ESPN and Fanduel projections, and manually calculating the full-season fantasy points using stat line projections posted on numberFire, I was able to calculate Fanduel’s full-season projections. With this step being completed, I calculated the difference between every player on ESPN and numberFire, by subtracting ESPN from numberFire for both PPR and Non-PPR projections. Furthermore, players on our list with a positive value are projected to score more than what ESPN is projecting, while the opposite is true for players with a negative value. Through these calculations, I was able to determine which players ESPN is over/undervaluing.
Having laid out my entire process, I will now be delving deep into my findings, and providing you with my takeaways. Beginning with quarterbacks this week, I will be providing written analysis on many of the players by analyzing our calculated data, and choosing which player’s results I agree with or in some cases, who I disagree with.
Beginning with a couple of QBs from the AFC South, I fully expect Anthony Richardson to take a big leap this season despite missing the majority of his rookie year, as Number Fire is predicting him to outperform the ESPN projections by roughly 47 points. Based on the games he played last season, he showed that he does have the arm talent and accuracy to be a top fantasy QB this season. Although there may be some concerns about him being injury-prone, both Vegas and I are expecting him to outplay his fantasy projections. Along with Richardson, I am also expecting CJ Stroud to be a top performer in fantasy leagues this season. Despite the potential for a sophomore slump, which is not uncommon in the NFL, I believe the addition of Stefon Diggs will leave Stroud with no other option than balling out this season. Number Fire is projecting Stroud to exceed ESPN projections by an additional 40 points.
Although they may not be the most talked about quarterbacks in their division, two guys I expect to outperform their projections are Kyler Murray and Geno Smith. Although it can be said that Kyler Murray who is projected to score 42 more points than ESPN is projecting, has disappointed thus far in his career, appearing to excel more on the sticks than on the field, I am expecting him to have a bounce-back season this year. With the addition of Marvin Harrison, and the promise that the young Trae Mcbride has shown, I expect Kyler to to be better positioned as a passer this year, and I believe he has the chance to finish as a top-five fantasy QB, barring injury. On a separate note, although serving as a coordinator at the college level last season, the play calling and designs that Ryan Grubb put together last caught the attention of college fans all over the nation. This has led me to believe that he is the missing piece that this young Seahawk team has been missing, especially in the passing game, as they appeared to have all the receiving talent a quarterback could need. However, they couldn’t put it all together, as they were missing the right offensive mind for the job, which I believe Ryan Grubb possesses. Furthermore, I believe that the 42 additional points that Number Fire is projecting from Geno Smith is not a reach, rather we should be expecting Geno to return to his 2022 season form.
Even in a world where Garrett Wilson finishes as a top 3-5 receiver, and Mike Williams plays 17 games, it’s still hard for me to imagine Aaron Rodgers returning to MVP form. Although being net positive on our list, he sits in the bottom 25% amongst other quarterbacks, which is far below both Tua and Josh Allen. Although Allen lost both Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, I am excited to see what Keon Coleman has to offer and potentially Dalton Kincaid too, who will likely be seeing many more targets. As for Tua, he has too many weapons not to put together another Pro Bowl season, enough said.
While losing a star receiver can pose a huge threat to a quarterback's success, so can losing a head coach or even offensive coordinator. This is the case for Baker Mayfield, as Dave Canales who helped to develop Russell Wilson and revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker. Leading me to believe that Bryce Young is the real winner in this instance, and the addition of Lagette and Diontae Johnson adds a much-needed downfield threat. Although Bryce Young is a net negative on our list, I expect him to take a big leap this season, even with his last year’s lackluster season in mind.
Two guys who I would be especially cautious about when drafting this year are Brock Purdy and Jordan Love. Despite silencing doubters last year, I fear that the addition of Josh Jacobs poses a threat to Jordan Love’s fantasy value, and will cause him to carry less of the load through the air. In Brock Purdy’s case, the potential loss of Brandon Aiyuk and a possible Super Bowl slump make Purdy a seemingly risky pick, Even with all the other talent on the roster.
This goes without saying, but Patrick Mahomes should be an obvious fantasy pick for consideration, though I don't believe the Chiefs are being talked about enough in terms of fantasy. Adding tons of speed this offseason was a great decision by the Chiefs' front office, as the loss of Tyreek Hill caused the Chiefs to be less explosive on offense despite winning two straight Super Bowls, though I believe that this void has been filled and should provide a huge boost to Mahomes fantasy value.
While he may not be high on our list, Jayden Daniels seems worthy of a late-round fantasy pick, as I believe he will have a great rookie year if he can stay healthy. Terry Mclaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Jamison Crowder are three guys who have shown promise with lackluster QBs, so imagine their potential with a Heisman winner under center.
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Happy to see the Orb Team continue to grow- welcome! Super excited to start gearing up for the NFL season and start crushing the bookies 😝