2024 Fantasy Football Projections - Wide Receivers

Via Sporting News

Orb Faithful,

If you missed his analysis on Quarterbacks last week, you can check it out here! The data and analysis by our intern on Wide Receiver comparisons below are presented and sponsored by the KART Fantasy Football League! 

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Wide Receivers Projections

Over the past 20 years, the style of play in the NFL has evolved, what was once a league centered around pounding the rock, is now seen as a pass-heavy league. This has had a huge impact on fantasy football evaluations, as highly touted fantasy running backs, such as Ladanian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson, meaning that wide receivers are now the biggest contributors towards fantasy success. This trend can be seen in our ESPN vs Fanduel projections, as the average wide receiver has a higher projection on Fanduel compared to running backs, revealing that ESPN is not valuing wide receivers as much as they should considering wide receiver output over the recent years. With this information in mind, I will now be evaluating our wide receiver analysis from the ESPN vs Fanduel projections, under the assumption that a sportsbook is using more accurate projections than a fantasy database such as ESPN. The wide receiver analysis for both PPR and Non-PPR projections can be seen below, in order of PPR +/-.

While The Chargers may have lost much of their passing attack with the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, this has left a huge hole for another receiver to fill in for these losses, which is Joshua Palmer who lies at the top of our list. While this in no way means that he should be considered a top pick in your draft, it does mean that he is being tremendously undervalued by ESPN, although Palmer has yet to eclipse 1,000 yards in a single season, he has also never been a top target on his team. Though he has still managed to produce, despite being buried on the depth chart. Along with Palmer, two other additions to the Chargers wide receiver corps are Cornelius Johnson (Michigan) and Ladd McConkey (Georgia), both of whom are rookies with lots of potential that should be considered potential late-round picks.

Speaking of rookies, Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be an instant impact player this year on the Cardinals, who haven’t had much in terms of receiving threats since Deandre Hopkins left. Though I believe this addition provides Kyler Murray with his go-to guy, as Harrison Jr. is one of the top-receiving prospects we have seen in recent years. This being said, with nobody to compete with him for targets, it leaves him with no ceiling in terms of fantasy production as I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish as a top 3-5 PPR receiver.

As stated in my previous article, I see the Chiefs offense being far more dynamic through the air this season, as the additions of both Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy provide them with tons of speed. Ultimately I see both of these players taking the top receiving spots on the depth chart, as off-the-field issues look to hurt Rashee Rice’s fantasy value. While Marquise Brown hasn’t played to his potential the past few years, I believe he will return to his 2019 form now that Patrick Mahomes is throwing his way, which is why Brown is expected to put up 41 additional points on our list. As for Xavier Worthy, who is only projected an additional 8 points on our list, I am faithful that he will be a productive downfield threat. Though he may not receive as many targets as many other receivers, I believe his speed will allow him to produce some big plays on the targets he does see. Considering that he has the fastest 40-time in combine history, paired with the best arm talent in the league, it would be quite surprising if he weren’t able to capitalize on his talent.

Over the past few years, we have seen the rise of LSU teammates Justin Jefferson and Ja’marr Chase, both of whom are thought of as top 5 receivers in the league. While Ja’marr Chase gets the luxury of playing with his former college teammate, and Heisman winner Joe Burrow. Justin Jefferson is experiencing a different reality, as JJ McCarthy and Sam Darnold are seemingly fighting for the QB1 spot, neither of whom are yet to experience success in the NFL. While Jefferson is projected to gain roughly 24 more points on our list, I don't consider him to be a top 10 pick in this year's draft, though I still believe he is a top receiver in the league, I don't think he will have the same production as past years. As for Ja’marr Chase, I believe he will continue to ball this season, as a healthy Joe Burrow is back under center and the Bengals are looking to make another deep playoff run. Along with this, the status of Tee Higgins being traded seems to add even more value to Chase this season, as this will provide him with even more targets.

A few players who I believe will continue on their past success are Puka Nacua and Tank Dell, who are both entering their second year in the league and showed tremendous talent throughout last year. Before his injury, Tank Dell proved himself to be one of the shiftiest and most elusive receivers in the league, as he has a perfect combo of Speed and Agility. If his injury does not linger, I believe he will emerge as the Texans' top receiver despite the addition of Stefon Diggs, as he was one of the best ball carriers I watched last season. On the other hand, Puka Nacua is coming off possibly the greatest rookie receiving season of all time, as he broke the receiving yards and receptions record for rookie receivers in a single season. With Cooper Kupp getting older and suffering through various injuries over the past couple of years, I see Puka taking the top receiver spot and building on his immense success from last season, as he is projected 41 additional points on our list (6th among PPR receivers).

Now switching gears towards players I’m not confident, I’ll begin with Calvin Ridley, who just joined Will Levis on the Titans. While I am not fully against picking Calvin late in your drafts, I am more worried about Will Levis’s play, as what I saw from his games last season, I have trouble seeing him develop a connection with Ridley or anyone else on the Titans. While Calvin Ridley has previously seen success, it's been quite a while since he has played up to his potential. Off-the-field issues and a year-long suspension put a halt to his career, and after returning, was not the same Ridley that we knew on the Falcons. Along with Ridley, I believe that Stefon Diggs is another receiver who will not experience the same production on his new team. By joining the Texans, it appears that Stefon Diggs is searching more for a ring than being a leading receiver, as he now joins the deepest wide receiver room in the league, and will be competing for targets with his younger teammates.

Despite being an impact player for his team over the past few seasons, I am expecting Deebo Samuel to slow down. I believe that taking all of the hits he has, and receiving all the touches he has, has left some wear and tear on him. While he has never been a star fantasy player, I would still look to avoid drafting him, especially in PPR leagues.

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