Orb Analytics Week 6 Preview – Picks & Insights

Check out the full results from the Orb’s week 5 picks linked here. While the moneyline models dragged down the overall performance, our spread models squeaked out their third +unit week in a row going 3-2, and are now looking to extend the run to four. Week 6 has the potential to get weird. The Bears are technically listed as the ‘home team’ but are playing in London which means only 4 out of the 14 favorites this week are playing in their own stadiums. So most teams will be getting points while playing in front of their fans as home underdogs. The markets aren’t expecting too many close games either as the spread in 8/14 games is more than a field goal. Our models had a great start to the weekend again as they predicted the 49ers to win and cover the 3.5 points in Seattle last night. This brings our season record to 16-9, 64.0% against the spread and we now head into Sunday with a +1.465 unit start to the weekend. This also extends our streak of non-Sunday premium picks to 6 in a row. The Orb is leaning into the chaos and is making some scary predictions for week 6:

Spread:

• 49ers -3.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅

• Ravens -6.5

• Browns +9.5

• Patriots +6.5

• Packers -5.5

• Raiders +3

Moneyline:

• 49ers (TNF - Premium) ✅

• Ravens

• Buccaneers

• Eagles

• Packers

• Raiders

• Lions

• Bengals

Last week our models were on the right side of a one-game difference between a winning and losing week against the spread. This included making picks on teams led by Mahomes, Lamar, and Josh Allen. In week 6, our models are backing teams with Aidan O'Connell, Drake Maye, and the nasty man in Cleveland at the helm. Scary stuff! We typically withhold a pick when there is a change at quarterback but that is because that change is most often being made due to the starter getting injured. In the case of the Patriots and Raiders, they have decided to make these changes to give their teams the best possible chance to win. The models made these predictions based on data that was collected on quarterbacks that both head coaches are now telling us are worse than what they expect to see on Sunday. This includes my Patriots who come into this one with tied for the worst EPA/Game passing attack in the league. While I was in the camp of not throwing Maye out behind this offensive line, even if he has the worst stats in the league this week it will be on par with what the models made their prediction on. If he is able to complete a pass more than 10 yards downfield, we are getting extra value on this pick. 

Our models missed on their attempt at three underdog moneyline winners in a row last week. The Panthers scored first to make it 7-0 but unfortunately for us, this is about all their offense contributed to the game. This week, the Orb has another underdog moneyline upset pick as all three models predict that the Raiders will upset the Steelers at home. 

I probably would have picked the other side on pretty much every one of these games which is usually a good sign because I am a terrible gambler. I developed the Orb for exactly for weeks like this. Whether they end up hitting this weekend or not, the underlying data is suggesting picks I never would have considered taking. The models are backing some ugly teams which is why most of these picks find us against the public and on the side of the sportsbooks. Here is where the public is on these picks as of the time I am writing this (via sportsbettingdime.com):

• Ravens -6.5: 44% of the tickets and 53% of the money

• Browns +9.5: 28% of the tickets and 40% of the money

• Patriots +6.5: 12% of the tickets and 21% of the money

• Packers -5.5: 38% of the tickets and 30% of the money

• Raiders +3: 27% of the tickets and 21% of the money

So we will be rooting for the bad guys in week 6 and hope the sportsbooks and the Orb have a great day on Sunday!

Which of Sunday’s scary picks do you like the most (or in this case hate the least):

Our readers nailed it last week, as the pick that the majority of you liked the most, the Ravens -2.5, hit with 57% of the vote! Let’s see how our readers do in week 6. Have a great weekend everyone!

- Team Orb Analytics

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