Orb Analytics Week 11 Preview – Picks & Insights
If you missed last weekend’s recap and results you can find it linked here.
Coming off a 1-2 performance against the spread last week, the Orb model is looking to bounce back in week 11. Our models have had just three losing weekends against the spread so far this season and responded well to each of the first two. We are hoping for more of the same on Sunday. The Orb is off to a great start after hitting on the Eagles -3.5 last night. We had to sweat out what ended up being a comfortable cover as Jake Elliot missed three (3) separate kicks, costing the Eagles and the Orb 7 points. This write-up could have looked slightly different as watching the game play out I felt confident that our models made the ‘right’ pick, which as we know is not always the one that hits. Thankfully last night it was and we now head into Sunday +1.409 units on the weekend. We have a balanced card of predictions from our models as all three had a consensus on two favorites and two underdogs covering. Here is what the Orb predicts will happen Sunday:
Spreads:
Eagles -3.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Packers -5.5
Titans +5.5
Falcons +1.5
49ers -6.5
Moneyline:
Eagles -3.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Lions
Packers
Rams
Ravens
49ers
Falcons
Bills
The Orb is going for an underdog moneyline pick on Sunday as all three of our models independently predict the Falcons will upset the Broncos in Denver. We have a semi-unstoppable force vs. a mostly immovable object between Atlanta’s run offense and Denver’s run defense. The Falcons rank 4th in offensive rushing attack while the Broncos have the 6th best rushing defense. Whenever we have a matchup of near-top units, it feels like more often than not it comes down to the other side of the ball. Denver’s offense and Atlanta’s defense have looked good enough at times but are both limited by flaws. So I will be watching to see who wins the matchup from their weaker units.
Falcons plus the points is my favorite of our model’s picks for Sunday, which might not be a good thing. My least favorite by far is the 49ers laying so many points to Seattle. This would be a great time for Purdy to prove a skeptic like me wrong again and win big. The Titans have been such a tough team to model this season. Their defensive numbers are pretty impressive and even in big losses I can’t blame this side of the ball. Their offense on the other hand looks great for about two drives and then suddenly can't move the ball. But over the last three weeks, they are the 4th highest trending offense in the league according to EPA/Game. Maybe they will pleasantly surprise us and move the ball on the Vikings' defense. Minnesota is coming off one of the uglier games of the season in which they struggled against Mac Jones’ Jaguars. Our models predict that Darnold will find his proper level after the hot start to the season and that the Titans can keep this one close. Finally, I like the Packers pick from the Orb. No team that loses to my Patriots this season should be taken seriously, and Chicago has to be at its breaking point. If Green Bay can take an early lead, my guess is that the Bears quit and things get ugly in the Windy City.
Last bit of housekeeping for the week, and a potential opportunity for anyone who enjoys the Orb and wants to share it with some friends. Andy and I are still relatively new to Substack and continue to learn more about it each week. Readers are able to refer our page and be rewarded for helping us grow. So if you are a free subscriber and want access to all the paid content - including but not limited to Thursday and Monday night picks - you can unlock a month’s worth of premium access by referring 10 new subscribers to the page!
- Team Orb Analytics
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