Orb Analytics Week 10 Recap – Performance & Results

Our models had a disappointing but manageable losing performance in week 10. They ended the weekend 1-2 against the spread and 7-3 on moneyline picks. Both of these resulted in -unit results, albeit fairly small ones. A losing week against the spread is never ideal but with such a small number of picks, the difference between a losing and winning week is razor-thin. A ‘damage control’ week as we like to call it, but ultimately -units are -units, and this project is built on transparency especially when our model’s miss picks.

What a weekend for underdogs! The dogs covered in 11/14 games so if you took the points this week, you probably had a great time. With the recent trend of favorites covering at such a high rate, this weekend was good for league-wide parity and also good for the sportsbooks. Can we expect underdogs to keep fighting back in the second half of the year? Just comparing this season to last year would suggest that we shouldn’t. Since week 2 this year, favorites have covered 50.7% of games, right where Vegas wants them. This is on par with what we saw in weeks 2-10 last season in which favorites covered 51.5% of the time. In the second half of the year, favorites stepped it up and covered 54.2% of games in weeks 11-17. Comparing one season to another isn’t exactly fair or a significant sample size, but we have already seen some parallels between the two. In fact last year week 10 was also a trap week for favorites as underdogs covered 9/14, 64.2% of games. If the previous season does end up being a decent predictor of this year, we might see a lot of games go ‘chalk’ between now and the playoffs.

Here are how the Orb’s picks performed in week 10:

Spreads:

• Ravens -5.5 (TNF - Premium) ❌

• Patriots +6.0 ✅

• Commanders -2.5 ❌

All spread picks: 1-2, 33.3%, -1.091 units

Moneyline:

• Ravens (TNF - Premium) ✅

• Bears ❌

• Bills ✅

• Vikings ✅

• Chiefs ✅

• Falcons ❌

• 49ers ✅

• Commanders ❌

• Eagles ✅

• Lions ✅

All moneyline picks: 7-3, 70.0%, -0.415 units

Overall a -1.506 unit performance

Week 10 Model Performance: 

Favorites covered 3/14 games (21.4%) and won 8/14 outright (57.4%).

Weekly spreads:

Weekly Moneyline:

Season-To-Date Model Performance: 

Not including week 1, favorites have covered 69/136 games (50.7%) and won 90/136 (66.2%) outright this season.

Season spreads:

Season moneyline:

Official Orb Picks Season Results:

Season spread picks: 29-20, 59.2%, +6.4 units

Season moneyline picks: 55-27, 67.1%, +1.8 units

Confusion Matrix:

The next 2-3 weeks will be important for our model. Last season the Orb peaked in week 10 when it was hitting at a unsustainably high rate of 68% against the spread. We regressed to the mean over the second half of the season and landed at a still very successful rate of 58.2%. One of my goals for the models in the offseason was to try and set them up for a more sustainable and gradual success rather than seeing big highs and lows throughout the season. Attempting to do this and actually succeeding are two different things, so only time will tell if we were able to actually implement the changes we set out to. With the Orb hitting at 59.2% after week 10, we hope that our hit rate heading into the playoffs is close to to our current performance rather than the steady decline we had last season. 

I want to try something a little different for some user engagement from the Orb Faithful. Rather than these polls being for Orb pick specific questions, let’s broaden them to general NFL fans.

Taking Jayden Daniels out of it since he is the clear frontrunner, which of the 1st round rookie quarterback do you believe in most moving forward after what they have shown us so far? Comment below your thoughts and hot takes, we will respond to every comment!

- Team Orb Analytics

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