Orb Analytics Divisional Round Picks
If you missed the recap of the Orb’s +money start to the playoffs you can find it linked here.
Our models now look to add to their 2-0 start against the spread with two more picks in the Divisional Round, one on Saturday for our paid subscribers and one on Sunday. From an entertainment standpoint, thankfully the Sunday pick is for game featuring both our spread winners from last week:
Spreads:
Ravens -1.5
Moneyline:
Eagles
Ravens
This matchup has the potential to be truly great. As sports fans, it is really easy to romanticize the past and overlook what is happening at the moment. We like to reminisce about AFC playoff matchups that featured some combination of Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Rivers, and more from that golden generation. From a quarterback perspective, we are lucky to have another crop of potential to already established greats in their primes. Any playoff game in the next few seasons that gives us any combination of Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, and I would personally put Burrow there as well, should be cherished knowing one day we will look back on those battles as their own golden days. So let’s all enjoy a Josh-Lamar matchup while it lasts, and hopefully, the game itself lives up to the hype.
On top of the two leading MVP candidates, this game features 2/3 of the top EPA passing offenses and the #2 and #4 rushing attacks. The strength of both of these defenses is stopping the run, with Baltimore ranking 1st and the Bills ranking 4th. However, both can be thrown on, with the Bills pass defense ranking 25th in the league heading into the playoffs and the Ravens 29th. Basically, these two teams are shockingly similar from a data perspective and are playing a version of themselves in which they both know how to attack and how to defend. Look at how close they are to one another from an overall efficiency standpoint:
Quadrant 1: Above average offense/above average defense
Quadrant 2: Below average offense/above average defense
Quadrant 3: Below average offense/below average defense
Quadrant 4: Above average offense/below average defense
I have borrowed this graph from our Playoff Data Guide which compared the playoff teams to one another heading into Wildcard Weekend. These two and Detroit all have very similar profiles with the Bills and Ravens both being more centered around their all-world quarterbacks. I almost wish the models had disagreed on this one and we could stay away from it to enjoy it stress-free, but all three are giving Baltimore the slight edge to win and cover.
Zay Flowers is still listed as ‘questionable’ after missing last week. In the analysis of the Orb’s pick on Baltimore last weekend, I said I didn’t think they needed him to win that game and they decidedly did not. I do think his availability will be a big factor in this one. If the Ravens aren’t able to run consistently on Buffalo as they did to Pittsburgh, missing their #1 pass catcher could be tough to overcome.
Taking a step back from the Ravens-Bills game, I was proven wrong about something last weekend. Come playoff time I typically trust defense more than offense, meaning I would have expected teams from Quadrant 2 to outperform Quadrant 4. But we saw the opposite play out. Houston is the lone survivor from defensive-heavy teams while all the offense-first teams are playing this weekend other than Tampa Bay. The Rams upsetting the Eagles would be quite the efficiency anomaly as it would mean the only team that is below playoff average on both sides of the ball beat the last remaining team that is above the pack both ways.
By the end of the weekend, the Orb’s playoff record against the spread could range anywhere from 4-0 to 2-2. Let’s hope it is the former and we can add to the +unit start to the playoffs.
- Team Orb Analytics
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