Orb Analytics Conference Championship Picks
With only four teams remaining and two games to choose from, the models have just one spread pick for Sunday. Last week’s 0-2 performance ATS brought our playoff record down to 2-2 so the Orb will leave Sunday either 60% or 40% in the playoffs heading into the Super Bowl. The small sample of size of playoff games make them tough to model, especially when using a multi-model strategy. A 60% record sounds amazing until you realize its 3-2, and 40% sounds like a disaster until you see it is 2-3. But we will find ourselves on one side of the knife’s edge depending on if the Commanders can continue their historic run and keep this one close with the Eagles:
Spreads
Commanders +6.5
Moneyline
Eagles
Chiefs
Every team has injuries by this point in the playoff and no one is playing 100% healthy. While I expect them all to play, the Eagles have some key names on the injury report listed as ‘questionable’ meaning they might be limited on Sunday. Hurts, Brown, Geodert, Mitchell, and Sweat are all included. The big concern for Philadelphia is Hurts’ knee which he injured towards the end of the game against the Rams. While he stayed in, he did look limited and they mainly handed the ball off.
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Philadelphia’s defense will be a big step up from what the Commanders have faced so far in the playoffs. They rank 1st against the pass and 5th against the run according to EPA. But to be fair to Washington, our models are backing this offense which ranks well itself. The Commanders came into the playoffs with the 1st ranked EPA rushing attack in the league and 7th against the pass. They had multiple big explosive plays against the Lions which were exciting but also less replicable and not something you want to rely on against an elite defense. I think their offensive game plan against Tampa Bay in the Wildcard round is more likely what we are going to see on Sunday. They did a great job of gaining modest, positive yards on 1st and 2nd downs setting up 3rd and short which allowed them to bring in the threat of running or RPOs. With how aggressively they go for it on 4th down, they treated 3rd and shorts differently than most teams knowing they had two chances to convert. During the regular season, Washington had the best conversion rate on 4th down going 20/23 for an 87% success rate. One of the few stats that doesn’t look good for the Eagles' defense is 4th down which they have allowed opponents to convert on 63.3% of the time. So this cover, or even the game, could come down to how the Commanders perform on 4th down, an advantage they have on paper going into the game.
‘Fun’ isn’t a factor in our models but its always an added bonus when they pick the more fun side of a spread. While the Eagles have earned both their playoff wins so far I wouldn’t say I had a ton of fun watching them do so despite all the talent they have. And since the playoffs are separate from the regular season for us anyway, let’s have some fun rooting for Jayden and this offense. While I very much could see a world in which the Eagles cover and rightfully look like the better team, I don’t see rooting for them to hold onto a touchdown lead being a fun experience.
Our moneyline models are predicting a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl which admittedly wouldn’t be my preferred matchup but these models have struggled so far in the playoffs. So that could be a good sign for readers from DC and Upstate New York.
Which matchup do you think we will get in the Super Bowl?
- Team Orb Analytics
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