NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.15.25
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Image via cbssports
Some quick housekeeping before we get to our model pick and results. The wrong post got sent out as Tuesday’s newsletter. I am on vacation and had pre-written the first half of the newsletter, but this was not the one that made it into your inbox. So some hard-hitting analysis of the model hitting on the Timberwolves -10.5 last Thursday will have to stay in our drafts forever. I am sorry for the mixup and hope to avoid it again the next time I am out of service and unable to send it myself.
The good news that far outweighs the bad news is that the model was still run properly and had a 2-0 performance, hitting on both underdogs. This makes it three wins in a row as the model starts to warm back up. It brings our overall accuracy to 53.2% against the spread, above the all-important 52.4% benchmark. While remaining above it isn’t a primary goal for our first attempt at an NBA model, it would be a significant achievement if the model outperformed the -110 vig the house holds over the player. That is getting ahead of ourselves as we still have high-level matchups left before a champion is crowned. The clean sweep does however, add to our playoff success as our model now currently holds an 8-5 record ATS in the postseason, good for an accuracy of 61.5% heading into tonight. Both our overall and postseason unit records now start with a ‘+’ sign, which is always worth celebrating while it is true.
Indiana +7.5 (-110) ✅
Denver +10.5 (-110) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 33-29, 53.2%, +1.3 units
Playoff Record: 8-5, 61.5%, +2.4 units
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After hitting on the Nuggets Tuesday Night on the road, I am not surprised to see the model backing them again tonight at home:
Nuggets +4.5 (-103)
Dishing + Swishing: EP24 - Playoff Banter
Image Credit: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer
Image Credit: Profootballnetwork.com
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