🏀🔥NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.8.25
Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market
Image via dunkingwithwolves.com
Golden State didn’t need the points (or even Steph Curry) Tuesday Night as they won outright to upset the Timberwolves in Minnesota to take a 1-0 series lead. The win won’t bring our model’s accuracy above any significant threshold, but it does keep us above the .500 mark for now, heading into tonight. Same as during the NFL season, breaking down model wins isn’t as fun or interesting as talking about when the model loses.
The story of Round 2 has been the underdogs. They have covered and won outright in 6/7 games in the second round so far, with the Thunder finally snapping the streak last night. While the trend is fairly extreme in the current round, taking the points has been the best bet in the playoffs as a whole. Including the Play-In games, underdogs have covered 29/52 games, which is good for a profitable cover rate of 55.8%. All these close games and upsets are why the 2025 postseason has been so fun.
Warriors +6.5 (-105) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 30-29, 50.8%, -1.5 units
Playoff Record: 5-5, 50.0%, -0.4 units
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After hitting on Golden State on Thursday, the model is flipping and predicts the Timberwolves will bounce back big tonight:
Timberwolves -10.5 (-102)
We have a fantastic market for tonight’s game on Novig. As of the time I’m writing this, both sides of the spread are at -102. Over on the big sportsbook, the Wolves are -112 and the Warriors are -108 to cover the same line. So whether you like the model’s pick tonight and want to tail, or hate it and want to fade us, you can get significantly better value on either side of the spread making the play on Novig:
If you are going to grab the extra value on Novig, tell them we sent you and support the page by using our code ‘ORB’ for 50% off your first purchase up to $25, and make it a win-win!
- Team Orb Analytics
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