We are using this week's newsletter to answer the most common question we get: "What defines success for the Orb?" The answer is simple but involves some math. Vegas offers standard betting odds for spreads and totals. This means you wager $11 to win $10, or -110 odds on your sportsbook. Vegas sets these spread and total lines so that each side theoretically has 50% chance at hitting. The formula for standard betting leads us to the magic number of 52.4% as the breakeven point for betting -110 odds. Meaning someone who picks 52.3% or less will slowly lose their money, and someone who picks above that threshold will be profitable. The graph below breaks down profit/loss of standard betting at different win rates:
So the simple answer would be that picking spreads and totals above a 52.4% rate would be a success. However, obviously the higher the hit rate the better. From our research, the best "professional" handicappers (people that pick games) range from a 53%-55% hit rate over successful seasons. The other number that comes into play when defining success is the volume of picks that someone makes. Right now we are picking every spread and total (minus any "stay away" picks) meaning that we are making a very high volume of picks. When it comes to standard betting, hitting at a higher volume, even at a lower winning percentage is more profitable as shown in the graph below. For example, hitting at a 55% rate over 250 picks is more profitable than hitting at a 65% rate over 50 picks:
For us, this means that our measurable goal is to hit spreads and totals at as high of a rate over 52.4% as possible, over a large volume of picks. So, how are we doing so far? After weeks 5, 6, and 7 we are technically hitting our goal, but want to continue to improve, especially on spread picks. Our official season numbers are below:
Totals: 26/44, 59.09%
Spreads: 21.5/43, 50%
Together: 47.5/87, 54.59%
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Here are the results of our three games of the week for week 7:
Moneyline: 2/3, 66.67%
Spread: 2/3, 66.67%
Totals: 2/3, 66.67%
And here are our three favorite games for week 8:
Thank you again to our awesome graphics team for creating these.
Our second ever Orb parlay is below:
-Raiders -1.5
-Titans -2.5
-Jaguars-Broncos over 39.5 points
+570 odds.
The entire slate of week 8 picks are attached below. After signs of life from some offenses in week 7, the Orb is predicting a lot of points this weekend.
*Orb Analytics provides neither gambling nor financial advice. We are not responsible for what you decide to do with the information we provide*
Thanks,
Team Orb Analytics
