Week 8 Newsletter and Picks

We once again could see the perfect week against the spread in front of us, and once again we fell just short. After a perfect Sunday going 6-0, our models predicted the 49ers covering 6.5 points Monday night against the Vikings and we got burnt by Primetime Kirk. The misses always stick out way more to me than the hits do but it’s hard not to be very happy with how the Orb performed in a wild week 7. The public got crushed by Vegas as only 4/13 favorites covered the spread and just one more won outright. This highlights the Orb’s performance further as it picked 3/4 of the favorites that did end up covering (Ravens, Chiefs, and Eagles). Until now our spread and moneyline picks have been tied together in terms of either being +unit or -unit performances. Our week 7 picks were the first time we saw a +unit performance out of our spreads and a -unit one out of the moneyline picks. We of course want both to be positive but in the context of this project, it was interesting to see that they aren’t dependent on one another.  The most important thing that happened this week was that we got off the halving roller coaster with two +unit weeks in a row and bucked the trend. Here is how each pick performed from week 7:

Spreads

• Giants +3 ✅

• Colts +3 ✅

• Ravens -3 ✅

• Broncos +1.5 ✅

• Chiefs -5.5 ✅

• Eagles -2.5 ✅

• 49ers -6.5 (MNF) ❌

All spreads: 6-1, 85.7%, +4.454 units

Moneyline

• Buccaneers ❌

• Rams ❌

• Seahawks ✅

• Broncos ✅

• Chiefs ✅

• Eagles ✅

• 49ers (MNF) ❌

All moneyline: 4-3, 57.1%, -2.094 units

Overall a +2.36 unit weekend. Let’s see how that adds to our season totals through week 7:

• Season spread picks: 28-15, 65.1%, +10.452 units

• Season moneyline picks: 42-20, 67.7%, +2.805 units

The back-to-back +unit weeks bring our season total to +13.257 units. As you can see above, this is being heavily carried by the performance of our spread picks. This is encouraging as we do run both, but have a heavier internal emphasis on our models’ performance against the spread. 

Turning the page to week 8, we are going for a season-record three +unit weeks in a row. I pondered the Orb, and for the first time, all it showed was underdogs against the spread. Our models predict we are in for another week of upsets as it loves home dogs on Sunday. Here are the Orb’s picks for week 8:

Spreads:

• Panthers +3.5

• Giants +3

• Patriots +9.5

• Titans +2.5

• Cardinals +9.5

Moneyline:

• Bills (TNF) ✅

• Eagles

• Jaguars

• Cowboys

• Giants

• Dolphins

• Titans

• Vikings

• Seahawks

• 49ers

• Chiefs

• Chargers

It is truly spooky season for us here at the Orb as our fate for week 8 lies in the hands of Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Malik Willis/Will Levis, and other quarterbacks that will make you scream in horror. We are in for a scary Halloween weekend and only the brave will tail. 

A quick bit of housekeeping for our many new subscribers who have joined since last week. These newsletters and the Monday/Thursday premium content picks are official picks that our models make. My good pal Andy Diamonds (who is a normal person that doesn’t spend his free time creating predictive models to try and beat Vegas) posts a lot of great content including player props for games. Those will not be emailed to you but make sure to check them out on the page. If you are curious about our modeling strategy for the season, you can fine it linked here.

Let’s have an awesome week 8 and everyone have a fun and safe Halloween weekend!

- Team Orb Analytics

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