Week 5 Recap and Week 6 Picks
A lot of exciting numbers to break down from week 5. Like we mentioned in our first few emails, we were targeting week 5 as a large enough sample size to officially get started so these results are "on the record" as we try and see how accurate we can be this season.
We have a few things that we are going to be monitoring over the next few weeks:
1. High/Medium value picks did not perform as well as lower value picks. It is a small sample size so we will be watching to see if this corrects itself.
2. There were a few data exceptions between moneyline picks and spreads. Meaning that the Orb predicted a few "impossible" outcomes where it picked the favorite to cover, but the underdog to win. We have looked into the code and hopefully fixed this issue going forward, but this did hurt our moneyline pick performance for week 5.
Let's start with the best performing section, spreads:
The number one scoring offense in the league, the Detroit Lions, walked into Foxborough and put up zero points just like everyone expected. They remain public enemy #1 of the Orb and thankfully have their bye week this week.
-High Value Picks: 0-1, 0%, -1 unit
-High/Medium Picks: 2-2-1, 50%, -0.182 units
-All 16 Picks: 12-3-1, 78.13%, +7.863 units
Our next best performer were totals:
Similar to our high value spread for the week, the Detroit Lions ruined all the fun. However, in line with the spreads, the Orb performed very well across all 16 games.
-High Value Picks: 1-1, 50%, -0.091 units
-High/Medium Picks: 4-3, 57.14%, +0.6 units
-All 16 Picks: 11-5, 68.75%, +4.999 units
In an interesting turn of events, our moneyline picks underperformed compared to spread and totals. This has historically been the easiest to predict so we expect this to be an outlier on the season. We like to be transparent and above board so we won't shy away from our failures and only show our highlights:
-High Value Picks: 2-3, 40%
-High/Medium Picks: 4-4, 50%
-All 16 Picks: 8-8, 50%
Attached are the Orb's picks for week 6, let's hope to add to our week 5 success and keep our official record as accurate as possible. Also see our personal favorite games of the week below, shout out to our awesome graphics team:
*Orb Picks provides neither gambling nor financial advice. We are not responsible for what you decide to do with the information we provide*
Thanks,
Team Orb Picks
