Week 5 Newsletter and Picks
Week 4 is in the books and we are excited to break this one down to say the least. I need to double check last year’s results but I feel pretty confident in saying this was the best week our algorithm has had so far. Our search for a perfect week almost finally ended as we missed just one spread pick and one moneyline pick. The nasty man in Cleveland got ruled out with a shoulder injury right before kickoff, and Bryce Young and the Panthers offense had the ball in their hands down eight points with two minutes left. Needless to say, the Browns rookie quarterback did not get the job done against Baltimore, and no team has made a single score deficit look more insurmountable than Carolina did. But it's a great problem to have when these are our only complaints coming out of a full slate of games. The perfect week will have to wait. Results like this are why we do it, and we received a lot of love from you guys so we’re glad you appreciated it too! We have a lot of exciting numbers to break down so let’s get right to it. Here is how the Orb performed in this historic week 4:
Spreads:
Lions -1.5 (TNF) ✅
Bills -3 ✅
Texans +3 ✅
Rams +1.5 ✅
Panthers + 4.5 ❌
Titans + 2.5 ✅
Chargers - 5.5 ✅
All spreads: 6-1, 85.7%, +4.454 units.
Moneyline:
Lions (TNF) ✅
Jaguars ✅
Bills ✅
Texans ✅
Vikings ✅
Eagles ✅
Broncos ✅
Browns ❌
Chargers ✅
Cowboys ✅
49ers ✅
Chiefs ✅
All spreads: 11-1, 92.7%, +3.579 units.
All in all, a +8.033 unit performance from the Orb. Is that good? It seems good. But in all seriousness, we couldn’t be more excited about how our models performed and we hope they keep it going the rest of the way this season. Here is how each model performed individually across all 16 spreads:
Model A: 10-6, 62.5%
Model B: 10-6, 62.5%
Model C: 10-6, 62.5%
Each individually outperformed our 52.4% target goal and a great example of our Venn Diagram model strategy combining for even higher accuracy.
We want to take a second to zoom out and break down how the Orb is performing as a whole so far this season. If you are one of our newer subscribers, or missed our season preview you can find a detailed description of our modeling strategy for this season linked here. We needed 2023 team input data to be able to confidently run our models, so our bookkeeping started week 2 rather than week 1. As a reminder, our goal for the models is to ‘beat Vegas’ by performing at or higher than the profit line of 52.4% against spread picks. A three week sample size may sound small, but in a 17 week regular season it becomes more substantial. Here is the week by week breakdown of how our models are performing by unit:
All our picks are available (Sunday picks for everyone, Thursday/Monday picks for paid subscribers) so you can find them throughout the newsletter blogs. Here are the season percentages that make up the figures above.
Spreads: 14-7, 66.7%
Moneyline: 25-7, 78.1%
We have a ton of the season ahead of us, and we know down weeks like we saw in week 3 are inevitable, but we are really happy with how our models have performed over the last three weeks, and hope you guys are too.
Now to finally turn the page to week 5 where we look to add to our +10.095 unit season. We looked into the Orb and here is what it told us was going to happen Sunday:
Spreads:
Colts +2.5
Patriots +1
Ravens -4.5
Texans +1.5
Cardinals +3
Jets +2.5
49ers -3.5
Moneyline:
Commanders (TNF) ❌
Dolphins
Bills
Colts
Ravens
Texans
Lions
Cardinals
Chiefs
49ers
Not only do our models like a lot of underdogs to cover Sunday, but it predicts three complete upsets with the Colts, Texans and Cardinals all winning at +money. We hope we’re in just as good of a mood writing next week’s newsletter. If you guys benefited from or enjoyed last week’s picks in any way, show some love by dropping a like or comment!
- Team Orb Analytics
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