Week 3 Newsletter and Picks
Like my good friend Andy Diamonds mentioned, there's been a lot of buzz around our page lately and the only people we have to thank for that is you guys! Week 2 was the first time our new modeling system has had same season team data to work with, albeit a one week sample size, and the results are already promising. We have a lot of exciting numbers to break down from the weekend so let’s dive right into it. Here is how the Orb performed in week 2:
Spread:
Falcons -1.5 ❌
Seahawks +4.5 ✅
Titans +3 ✅
Colts +1.5 ✅
Cardinals +4.5 ✅
Cowboys -8.5 ✅
Patriots +3 ❌
Overall spreads: 5-2, 71.4%, +2.545 units
Moneyline:
Falcons ✅
Buccaneers ✅
Bills ✅
Chargers ❌
Ravens ✅
Cowboys ✅
Saints ✅
Browns ❌
Overall moneyline: 6-2, 75%, +1.391 units
All in all, a +3.936 weekend with limited data! Still obviously very early but are excited that our Venn Diagram modeling is showing serious signs of life. What a difference one week and a small amount of data can make. We won’t break down model performance for moneyline, but here is how each model performed against all 16 spreads:
Model A: 9-6-1, 59.4%
Model B: 8-7-1, 53.1%
Model C: 9-6-1, 59.4%
We are thrilled to see each of our models individually hit above the 52.4% profit target line. We now have another week of data to work with as we continue to load the Orb up in the hopes of sustained accuracy throughout the season, but this early success gives us hope in potentially cutting down the time to get there. We got some great feedback on our trend analysis last week so we are going to keep that going moving forward. Here is what we saw happen on the field in week 2:
Underdogs covered the spread in 10/16 games with the Saints-Panthers game pushing for a record of 10-5-1 against the spread.
Favorites won outright in 10/16 games with road favorites accounting for 5 of these win.
Home favorites won 62.5% of the time but only covered the spread 37.5% of games.
Over the past two weeks:
Favorites only covered in 11/32 games or 34.4% of the time.
Favorites only won outright 18/32 games or 54.3% of the time.
So far this season has belonged to the underdogs.
Let’s turn the page to week 3 where we have some truly awful matchups. Including Thursday’s game, there are three games with a spread over 10 points which mean Vegas is expecting some blowouts. One of the cool things to track and analyze this year is how our algorithms perform against large vs. small spreads. Picking the favorite of a large spread to win outright is easy but covering that many points isn’t always a guarantee. Here are the Orb’s picks for Sunday’s games:
Spreads:
Browns -3.5
Jets +2.5
Texans +8.5
Ravens -8.5
Steelers +2.5
Moneyline:
Vikings
Jets
Bills
Ravens
Lions
Packers
Dolphins
Seahawks
Chiefs
Eagles
Let’s keep this momentum going with another +unit week 3! Comment any locks you guys have below.
- Team Orb Analytics
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