Week 17 Newsletter and Picks
Orb faithful,
Apologies that this week’s newsletter is coming out a little later than usual and will be on the shorter side. Vacation is great but has thrown off my schedule. Better late than never though. The Orb performed well over the weekend and was up around 4 units heading into Christmas Day Monday. Holidays have not gone our way this year as we had a repeat of our Thanksgiving nightmare and lost all 4 units as the Chiefs and 49ers both lost at home as heavy favorites. Our streak of premium spreads ended at six in a row as the Raiders got a big divisional win on the road. We added another push to the season total as the Titans were up big early but ended up losing by exactly a field goal to the Seahawks. Our moneyline models started great hitting their first 6 picks of the weekend before missing out on the Broncos and then eventually the Chiefs and San Fransico. Here is how each pick from the Orb performed in week 16:
Spreads:
Rams -3.5 (TNF Premium) ✅
Texans +2.5 ❌
Titans +3 🟨
Dolphins -1.5 ✅
Chiefs -10.5 (Christmas Day) ❌
49ers -6 (Christmas Day) ❌
All spreads: 2-3-1, 41.7%, -1.182 units
Moneyline:
Rams (TNF Premium) ✅
Bills ✅
Lions ✅
Bears ✅
Jets ✅
Dolphins ✅
Broncos ❌
Chiefs ❌
Eagles ✅
49ers ❌
All moneyline: 7-3, 70%, +0.309 units
Overall a -0.873 unit performance for the week. Christmas Day had a chance to add to a solid performance but unfortunately turned into a nightmare. This week’s results drop our season percentage against the spread to just under 60% for the first time since early this season. Here is how week 16 impacted our season totals:
Season-to-date results:
Season spread picks: 57-38-7, 59.3%, +13.815 units
Season moneyline picks: 109-46, 70.3%, +8.789 units
With just one week left for our official record for the season, our models will need to have a solid +unit performance against the spread to end the year above 60%. Next week we will still run the models and give out picks but with all the uncertainty of rosters in week 18 it will be off the record, same as week 1. This will also give me time to break down our full-season performance and get real nerdy with all our data. Our models started the week off right as they took the Browns to win and cover Thursday night. Here is what the Orb predicts will happen in week 17:
Spreads:
Browns -7.5 (TNF) ✅
Cowboys -4.5
Ravens -3.5
Titans +4.5
Giants +4.5
Commanders +12.5
Eagles -11.5
Moneyline:
Browns (TNF) ✅
Cowboys
Ravens
Bills
Texans
Rams
Eagles
Chiefs
Sorry again this is coming out late and with less analysis than usual due to lack of time. I want to give a special shout-out and thank you to my partner in crime, Andy Diamonds for all he does for the Orb and our brand. Let’s finish the regular season strong and add to some exciting numbers we will be breaking down next week.
- Team Orb Analytics
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