Week 14 Newsletter and Picks

I can’t believe it is already week 14, the season is flying by. We have some less-than-ideal results to break down for you from our unlucky week 13. I try not to use that word and simply write off a missed pick as being ‘unlucky’ since a loss is a loss, but we had two spread picks that I want to call out in particular. The first is the Titans which the Orb picked to cover +1.5 points. Will Levis had an impressive day and led the offense on a late touchdown drive down 6. Old man Nick Folk just needed to hit the extra point and the game would have ended with a Tennesee (and Orb) win. I wouldn’t be writing about this if he had, as he missed wide left and the game went into overtime where the Colts ended up winning and covering. The second game I want to highlight was the Saints +4.5. After an abysmal first-half performance, Derek Carr tried his best to lead a huge second-half comeback before he got sidelined on a big hit and Saints ended up bringing the game within 5 points. For the second straight time, we found ourselves on the wrong side of a 0.5-point spread decision. In some ways, these misses are tougher than ones like the Commanders +9.5 where they didn’t come close to keeping up with Miami and we could chalk it up as a loss right away. We of course have had ‘lucky’ wins too so they do come out in the wash over the course of a season but they sure hurt in the moment. Here is how each pick from week 13 went:

Spreads:

• Cowboys -8.5 (TNF) ❌

• Saints +4.5 ❌

• Titans +1.5 ❌

• Commanders +9.5 ❌

• 49ers -3 ✅

• Packers +6 ✅

All spread: 2-4, 33.3%, -2.182 units

Moneyline:

• Cowboys (TNF) ✅

• Chargers ✅

• Steelers ❌

• Texans ✅

• Lions ✅

• Falcons ✅

• Dolphins ✅

• Buccaneers ✅

• 49ers ✅

• Jaguars ❌

All moneyline: 8-2, 80%, +1.835 units

Overall a -0.347 unit performance in week 13. Interestingly we see the inverse performance of our spread and moneyline picks continue. We are about 0.3 units away from the unit totals flipping and having our moneyline picks become the main bread-winner. If you are one of our many newer readers joining us over the last few weeks, first of all, welcome! As you’ll see below our models were killing it against the spread through week 10, peaking at +18.4 units and 68% accuracy. The last three weeks have been anything but that, as we’ve seen our roughest stretch of the season take a big hit to our totals. We can’t (and don’t) make any guarantees that our models will hit all their picks but do always promise that we won’t hide any misses from you or try and deceive our readers when it comes to our performances. Here is how our season records stand after a rocky week 13:

Season-to-date results:

• Season spread picks: 46-30-4, 60%, +11.816 units

• Season moneyline picks: 91-34, 72.8%, +11.525 units

Hand up. I got a little down on myself and the Orb project in recent weeks. This is a blast of an after-work project to run, and even though things have slowed down recently, it has been a more successful season overall so far than I could have realistically hoped for. Would I have wanted our models to remain 68% against the spread forever? Of course. But that is way too lofty of an ambition to set when our main goal has always been to create a model that is profitable against the spread by picking above 52.4%. Other than the fun data side that I get to nerd out on behind the scenes, this project has created an awesome community of people I know and total internet strangers. We went into this season with 60 subscribers and are currently sending this week’s newsletter out to 340 people which is crazy and incredibly humbling. Long story short, sorry for any bad vibes I put out there, I have so much to be thankful for from the Orb and all of you. 

Now let’s have the best week 14 possible! We have some awesome matchups on Sunday and hopefully quarterbacks all across the league can stay healthy and on the field. The last few weeks have gone very chalk, with favorites winning and covering at a rate that Vegas cannot be happy with. Our models predict this will change in week 13 and are loving the underdogs:

Spreads:

• Patriots +6 (TNF) ✅

• Panthers +5.5

• Bears +3

• Raiders +3

• Chargers - 2.5

• Chiefs -1.5

• Cowboys -3.5

• Titans +13.5

Moneyline:

• Steelers (TNF) ❌

• Ravens

• Saints

• Falcons

• Lions

• 49ers 

• Chargers

• Chiefs

• Cowboys

• Dolphins

Things are off to a great start for the week as the Patriots covered in our premium spread pick. We missed hitting the Baker as our models had the Steelers winning outright but we will take a spread win any day of the week. 1-0 in our last one, short-term memory baby. Let’s hope this is a good omen for the Sunday slate ahead!

- Team Orb Analytics

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