Week 12 Newsletter and Picks
All good things must come to an end. Unfortunately, our streak finished at 5 winning weeks in a row as week 11 did not go our way. There is so much bad to get to and we pride ourselves in not shying away from our misses. Houston won their game comfortably by 5 points which just missed the spread pick by half a point. But in terms of results, it doesn’t really matter if they miss by 0.5 points or 50, a miss is a miss. Next, the Orb had the Broncos covering 2.5 points Sunday night against Josh Dobbs and the best feel-good story in the league. Wilson led the Broncos to a late-game go-ahead drive to go up 1, but sadly, we were unable to convert the 2-point attempt to try and go up 3. Things only continued to get worse in the Monday night game as our models predicted the Chiefs to win and cover as they hosted the Eagles. Mahomes had the ball up 10 in the third quarter, but ultimately their two red-zone turnovers were too much to overcome as Philadelphia picked up a big win on the road. These misses resulted in a 2-3 week against the spread which was too big of a hurdle to overcome. Here is how each of the Orb’s picks did in week 11:
Spreads:
Ravens -3.5 (TNF Premium) ✅
Packers +3 ✅
Texans -5.5 ❌
Broncos -2.5 ❌
Chiefs -2.5 (MNF Premium) ❌
All spread: 2-3, 40%, -1.18 units
Moneyline:
Ravens (TNF Premium) ✅
Chargers ❌
Jaguars ✅
Dolphins ✅
Texans ✅
Commanders ❌
Lions ✅
49ers ✅
Broncos ✅
Chiefs (MNF Premium) ❌
All moneyline: 7-3, 70%, -1.886 units
Overall a -3.066 unit performance in week 11. Not great! Our third losing week of the season and the second worst one at that. Here is how that negatively impacts our season totals:
Season-to-date results:
Season spread picks: 42-21-3, 65.9%, +17.18 units
Season moneyline picks: 73-30, 70.8%, +6.316 units
Things continued to get worse as our models had a disastrous Thanksgiving slate. They missed all three of their spread picks and one moneyline pick as they took the Lions to win and cover in the first game of the day. They then picked the underdogs to put up a fight and cover, but unfortunately, neither the Seahawks nor the Jets were able to keep things close in their respective divisional matchups. Our Sunday picks are nothing but damage control now. It will take everything going our way to get back to as close to 0 on the week as possible. So many things have gone well for us so far this season that back-to-back losing weeks now feel catastrophic. We are going to work our hardest to earn back your trust in the Orb but this is going to be tough to recover from. We have fortunately built a nice cushion for ourselves in terms of staying above our season goal of 52.4% against spread picks. But I understand this is a ‘what have you done for me lately’ game and lately our models have done nothing but miss.
Things changed quickly as just last week it felt like our models couldn’t lose and now it feels like they may never get a spread pick right again. We need more than just data and luck on our side for the rest of week 12. Here is what our models predict will happen:
Spreads:
Lions -7.5 ❌
Seahawks +7 ❌
Jets +9.5 ❌
Panthers +3.5
Cardinals +2.5
Broncos -1.5
Eagles -3
Ravens -3
Moneyline:
Lions ❌
Cowboys ✅
49ers ✅
Dolphins ✅
Jaguars
Falcons
Colts
Broncos
Chiefs
Eagles
Ravens
There may not be any coming back from a 0-3 holiday but hopefully, we still have a fun Sunday and get a few bounces to go our way in an effort to not hurt our season totals too badly. As always, thank you for your support of the page especially during our toughest stretch of the season so far here!
- Team Orb Analytics
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