Week 11 Newsletter and Picks

It was a nervy yet ultimately successful week 10 for the Orb. The week started in the red as our models had the Panthers covering and winning outright against the Bears. Thankfully they at least pushed the spread so we went into Sunday only down one unit rather than two. The models ended the week going 3-1-2 against the spread as they were wrong about the Giants being able to cover the 17.5 and the Lions game also ended right on the line that Vegas set. This ultimately carried our week 10 results to our record-extending 5th +unit week in a row! It was not our biggest or most exciting winning week, but it kept the streak alive and we will never complain about any win over the bookmakers. We hit another Baker this week as the Commanders covered but lost in Seattle and just missed another with that crazy end to the game in Buffalo on Monday Night. Favorites only covered the spread in 5/14 games and won outright in just 8/14 times as we saw a full week of upsets. Here is how each pick performed in week 10:

Spreads:

• Panthers +3 (TNF Premium) 🟨

• 49ers -3 ✅

• Lions -3 🟨

• Giants +17.5 ❌

• Commanders +6.5 ✅

• Broncos +7 (MNF Premium) ✅

All spreads: 3-1-2, 66.7%, +1.727 units

Moneyline:

• Panthers (TNF Premium) ❌

• Colts ✅

• 49ers ✅

• Saints ❌

• Steelers ✅

• Lions ✅

• Cowboys ✅

• Seahawks ✅

• Bills (MNF Premium) ❌

All moneyline: 6-3, 66.7%, -0.065 units

Overall a +1.662 unit week 10 from the Orb. A little nugget for my fellow data nerds out there. My favorite result from the week was the Broncos covering against the Bills, and not because I have any fan affiliation with either team. I generally run our models on Thursdays and when I initially ran them, there was no consensus on a spread pick. Two of the models had Denver while one predicted the Bills to cover. After the Sunday slates we have new results that we can add to our training data. I retrained the models on our dataset that now included the most recent results and we saw them learn in real-time as they now all agreed on the Broncos pick. If I hadn’t retrained them, we would have given out a single, losing moneyline pick to our premium readers. Instead, we were able to give out a winning spread pick that added to our weekly and season-long totals. Here is how our records stand after week 10:

Season-to-date results:

• Season spread picks: 40-18-3, 68.0%, +18.36 units

• Season moneyline picks: 66-27, 70.9%, +8.202 units

Now to turn the focus to week 11. The Orb is expecting favorites to bounce back after underdogs dominated week 10. We saw this start on Thursday night as our premium readers got a double winner as the Orb took the Ravens to cover and win outright. We always want our models to be right, but this one felt cheap. What should have been a great and entertaining game turned into an injury fest. Pretty much every star in the game went down with varying levels of severity, with the big one of course being Joe Burrow who left the game in the first half and did not return. I have no idea if the Ravens would have won and covered or not if Burrow was able to continue, but it was all but guaranteed without him. Injuries stink and I hope Burrow is good to go next week or as soon as possible. The guilty end result is that we go into Sunday +1.419 units. We are in uncharted waters and have been for some time, as we look to make it 6 consecutive +unit weeks. Here is what our models predict will happen on Sunday:

Spreads:

• Ravens -3.5 (TNF Premium) ✅

• Packers +3

• Texans -5.5

• Broncos -2.5

Moneyline:

• Ravens (TNF Premium) ✅

• Chargers

• Jaguars

• Dolphins

• Texans

• Commanders

• Lions

• 49ers

• Broncos

Coming off a double-winner Thursday Night game, our paid subscribers are getting a holiday gift next week as there are four games between Thanksgiving and Black Friday. If you appreciate our work and the results we've achieved, or if you're interested in our Thanksgiving picks, please consider subscribing to our premium content. All the Sunday picks will be in next week’s newsletter as usual. Since this is the last newsletter before the holiday, I hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving surrounded by loved ones! 

- Team Orb Analytics

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