Week 1 Newsletter and Picks
We did it everyone, we made it to Football. We all deserve this. For anyone who missed our season preview where we broke down the changes made to the Orb this offseason, you can find that blog here.
Week 1 comes with excitement, unknowns, and of course a big ‘ol asterisk on the Orb’s picks. For those of you who weren’t following along last year, the Orb regrettably needs reliable data in order to be an accurate predictive model. Going into week 1 we of course have no data on what each team actually looks like on the field in 2023 with new rosters and new schemes. If you think of a machine learning model like a black box, team data goes in one side, it compiles and compares this data with historical training data then the picks come out the other side of the black box. We are confident in the models themselves, but the team data that goes into the box doesn’t exist for Week 1 and isn’t an accurate reflection of the team until after a few games. At this time once we have enough data points on each team we expect the Orb to be firing on all cylinders. This grace period before when we are collecting data is our biggest pain point and one we hope to continue to reduce in the future.
Nonetheless, the show must go on. The people have asked for Week 1 picks so who are we to say no. For full transparency, the way we work around having literally no team data for this season is to use team data from the end of last season. So if there is one thing to know about the picks that our models are giving out for week 1 it is that they are based on last season’s team data. Players and coaching staffs change in and out over the offseason and metrics that may have been true about a team last season aren’t necessarily representative of the teams we are going to watch this weekend. Now that I have gotten my disclaimers out of the way so no one can be mad at the Orb if week 1 doesn’t go to plan, here are spread and moneyline picks that all three of our models agreed on for Week 1:
Spread:
Chiefs -5.5
49ers -2.5
Panthers +3.5 **
Buccaneers +6 *
Saints -3 *
Colts +4.5 **
Giants +3.5
Moneyline:
Chiefs
49ers
Falcons
Ravens
Bengals
Vikings
Commanders *
Saints *
Jaguars
Seahawks
Eagles
Broncos
Bills
* = The team the Orb picked has a new starting quarterback
** = The team the Orb picked has a new starting quarterback who is a rookie
And here are our featured games of the week:
A reminder that with our new multi-model system all three models will agree on moneyline picks more often than they all agree on spread picks which is why there are more moneyline predictions than spreads. Also yes, considering that favorites win outright more often than not a lot of the moneyline picks that models A, B, and C all agree on will be favorites. Don’t get mad in the comments (@ orbcommenter I’m looking at you).
Starting this week we are going to be putting out some additional regularly scheduled content that we think you guys will enjoy. We will put clear disclaimers on each post but to hopefully help avoid any confusion please note: the picks that we give out in these weekly posts (referred to as our newsletter) are picks made by our algorithm. Picks made or talked about in content blogs by Andy Diamonds or myself outside of the newsletter are not official Orb picks. This blurb might feel a little out of place at the end of the newsletter but if you read our additional content hopefully it will make more sense.
Let's have a great week 1 everyone and hopefully we can flatten the curve of accurate input data starting Thursday night in Arrowhead.
- Team Orb Analytics
.
.
.
.
.
.
DISCLAIMER:
The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be gambling or financial advice, and should not be relied upon as such. We are not responsible for any actions or decisions taken by readers based on the information provided on this website.
The picks and predictions provided on this website are based on our own research and analysis, and are intended to be used for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information for gambling or other purposes.
By accessing and using this website, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer, and you assume all risks and liabilities associated with your use of the information provided on this website.