Round One Thoughts and Playoff Predictions: Best Hoops, Health, and Luck
Jimmy Butler did a piece with SLAM magazine recently where he listed the 3 things he believes are required to win an NBA Championship –
“There are three things that you gotta have in order to win a championship: you’ve gotta be playing your best basketball at the right time, you gotta be healthy, and you gotta be lucky. That’s just the way that it is.”
We all think predicting the playoffs are kind of an easy thing to do at first glance, right? Which teams have the best records, where are the superstars, how do teams/players perform under pressure, etc. But in essence, the parity in modern basketball challenges that conventional wisdom and oftentimes reduces success to what I believe Himmy said to be true; who is playing on a heater, who has the healthiest roster, and who ate the most bowls of Lucky Charms over the course of March?
The play-in created more questions than answers. Can a healthy Zion really carry a team by doing nothing other than bully ball? Is 39-year-old LeBron prime Magic Johnson? Is it time to crowdfund another highway billboard to fire the Chicago Bulls’ front office? Yes, that actually happened once before with the Bulls’ previous front-office regime. Do Keegan Murray and Nicolas Batum deserve playoff highlight reels? Is Lighting the Beam one of the corniest things of all time? Does Joel Embiid still deserve to be called a “free throw merchant?” … yes. Is Tyler Herro the Michael Jordan of Tobias Harris’? Is “Klay Thompson” a new slang word for the past tense of “wash?”
This is what happens when you have competitive basketball. You get wonderous domination and storylines worth arguing about. The Warriors question if their Last Dance was actually in ’22, the Pelicans question how they can advance without their star, the Heat question if they can stave off the Celtics, the 76’ers question if their seeding is worthy, and the Lakers question if they now have what it takes to thwart one-legged fadeaways at the shot clock buzzer by a man who would much rather be with his horses in Europe. The NBA Playoffs are entertaining and full of so many narratives worth following. Enjoy watching this first round and getting a feel of which teams feel here to stay.
Series Thoughts & Picks:
WEST
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have proven that it is still extremely hard in the NBA to stop someone who is purely bigger or stronger than you. Zion is a very dominant force and his ability to continue to leverage his strength and quickness over his opponents though they all know it’s coming is impressive and remains successful. The problems with that are one, hero ball never has and never will work in the playoffs, and two, Zion is currently out. Even if he was healthy I don’t think the style of ball the Pelicans depend on too often would be enough to get them past the number 1 seeded Thunder. Playoff basketball is just different from regular season ball. Teams have more time to strategize and test different schemes to hinder their opponent. It’s obvious Zion is the head of that snake and even a locomotive like Zion would be slowed down in a full series. The Thunder just have way too much talent on their roster OUTSIDE of their potential MVP in Shai. The Pelicans have a great supporting cast to their number-one star, but the Thunder have a stronger one. And don’t forget, a supporting cast can only do so much when their star isn’t there to support. Thunder advance.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The phrase, “on paper” exists for a reason. On paper, the Clippers have more talent than seemingly anyone. Part of their roster looks like part of an all-star team’s roster; the amount of all-star games attended through those players truly is impressive. At the end of the day, they have a team that has more name value than arguably any team in recent memory and it’s hard to believe that roster of the little brother team in LA. Unfortunately for the Clippers, this roster is a few years overdue and we all know their chances of being the last team enjoying confetti in June is about the same chances of Boston Dynamics revealing how they made their “Kawhi” model robot so lifelike, but without a laugh box. On paper, the Clippers are a force no team would want to face, but in reality, are just not trustworthy. With the health of Kawhi always being a concern, Paul George just showing flashes of what he can do, Russell genuinely being offended when he hears “brick” instead of “brook,” and the only pressure James Harden performing well under is the naming of strip joints he frequents off the dome, I just can’t see the Clippers going far in the playoffs. And this is without even mentioning their opponent, one I see as a deep contender this year. Of course, it’s possible this team performs how the papers say they should and quiet skeptics like me, and their advancement wouldn’t be that surprising. But I see the Clippers’ playoffs more as an implosion, rather than being defeated by a superior team. Talent only goes so far. Dallas goes to round two while Harden enjoys what he hears from the 1’s and 2’s.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
One team has one of the corniest players in American sports, with a player who is getting memed to a young MJ waaaaaaaaaaaay too much. The other team has one of the dirtiest players in American sports, with the strongest Big 2.5 this Association has ever known. Karl Anthony-Times changes his voice and personality almost as many times as Anthony Edwards has moves per possession. Grayson Allen hears the amount of curse words from fans equivalent to the amount, of course, words the Suns’ front office mutter to themselves when they realize Bradley Beal can only offer .5 to a theorized “Big 3.” This series has the potential of being one of the most entertaining in the playoffs because of all of its implications. The Timberwolves are trying to prove that having a team with great depth and the best defense in the league centered around a blossoming superstar is still a method to success, while the Suns cling on to the framework of a “Big 3” is the only way to hoist the Larry O’Brien. This is tough to pick but my gut says to trust the past. KAT and Beal are good, not great. Anthony Edwards is legitimately playing basketball like late 80’s Michael Jordan. Booker can be so lethal but can be too one-dimensional and inconsistent. Kevin Durant is still Kevin Durant, but is that enough? All of this adds up to me not placing faith in a team that has been burned with their current structure, and to go with the electric star that has made the team owner change his mind about selling the franchise. The Suns disappoint and again have to look at themselves in the mirror while the Wolves ride the vibe of the man who says his favorite nickname is “Black Jesus” to round two.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
As much as I think LeBron non-haters would like to see him perform late in the playoffs, it seems hard to imagine that’s possible when they face the defending champs in round one. Not only do they face the defending champs who are poised to make a return to the finals, they are facing a team that simply has their number. In the past 2 seasons, the Lakers are 2-5 against the Nuggets in the regular season. And of course, don’t forget the brooms the almost as enjoyable as the Wendy’s spicy chicken Nuggets brought out against the Lakers in last year’s playoffs. The Lakers are playing good ball right now, check one off Jimmy’s playoff needs list. They are not 100% healthy with rotation players out and their stars nursing small injuries, that’s a missed check, and their luck isn’t great as they face the number two-seeded defending champions who are 9-2 against the Lakers in all meetings in the past 2 years. That is 2 boxes unchecked in what is required by #22 for the Heat to win in the playoffs. LeBron James still is LeBron James and a healthy Anthony Davis is a monumental talent to consistently stop. It’s not wild to think a Nuggets team plays this series without their foot on the gas and the Lakers surprise them in ways nobody saw coming. Though that’s possible, I find it hard to believe Mike Malone to be stupid enough to not be as intense as possible through the whole series against a Mount Rushmore player trying to get one more ring before he hangs it up. The Nuggets are too cohesive, too deep, and too consistent to let an ailing, not as talented team like the Lakers end their season in round one. LeBron will regret not trading his whole team by the deadline while Jokic sighs as he thinks of his horses heading into round two.
EAST
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
I think the Heat are a really good team with a lot of talent that just doesn’t have the dynamics of a modern team to compete against a team like the Celtics without their star. Jimmy Butler playing 3 quarters on a severely sprained MCL is the most Jimmy Butler thing one can do. I was surprised with how the 76’ers came back in the play-in game, and can’t believe it was on the wings of Nicolas Batum. That serves as a reminder as to how damn good these NBA players really are, any of them could go off truly at any point and perform far beyond what one thought could be true. Anyway, the Heat will likely give the Celtics some annoying trouble in this series but I just can’t see how they can advance without Jimmy. The Celtics have way too much talent on their roster that I feel will be overwhelming for a team as good as, and as well coached as the Heat. To be frank, despite their seeding, I don’t really trust the Celtics as much as others. I think Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are great talents no question about it, but their inconsistency and tendencies to never rise to the occasion is scary. The pressure is only heightened in the playoffs and those flaws will only be amplified. I think it’s too early for the Celtics’ talent to not save them, but they worry me. For this round, I find the scoring prowess of Tatum and Brown, complimented by their deep roster and high-quality rotation players to be too much for a Heat team that will rely on 3-point snipers, Bam (-Bam), and a rookie from UCLA to survive. If Jimmy was healthy, I think this series would go very differently. Assuming he doesn’t Isaiah Stewart his way on to the court to play, Boston moves on.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Similar to the Timberwolves, the Cleveland Cavaliers present as a team that has the perfect pieces to surround their best player. Caris Lavert, Darious Garland Jr., and Max Strus are just some of the cast that surrounds the very talented Donovan Mitchell. The dominance of Mitchell with some of his game flaws being filled by his teammates took their team to the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs at the 4th seed? Outside of the LeBron eras? Who woulda thought? #45 remains to be an electric player in this league and this Cavs front office deserves a lot of credit for making the moves they have made to get this roster. The Magic deserve praise as well at seed number 5, as they have a well-oiled machine as well. Issac, the Wagners, Panchero; they have pieces to complement each other’s games and it really does work well and look good as they play. They just lack the one really important thing to survive in the playoffs, star power. Yes, Paolo Banchero is a young, lower-tier star, but look at the other rosters in the conference, let alone the playoffs as a whole. Pieces to a team are great, but when you don’t have a true, bonafide star or a combination of them, you are in trouble. Paolo and this Magic team just aren’t there yet. The pieces on this team – though worthy – aren’t good enough to propel their star in Banchero to higher levels in a series against a better supporting cast, and most importantly, against a better star. Cavs move on and Magic begin their offseason, but not in a disappointing way. Winning it all is always the goal and disappointment due to exiting during round one is deserved but some praise and hope is still deserved.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers
The Vibe Navigator reigns supreme in the vibe space and deserves to be treated as such. While he calculates his vibes off fascinating variables people and models don’t consider, I operate my vibe compass on a smaller and less advanced scale. The number one component in my vibe calculator is trust. I look at the Milwaukee Bucks and my gut just lacks trust for this team. My trust calculator is approaching government trust levels. Are we sure we genuinely trust these things? The narratives that came out of Milwaukee this year. The head coach switching mid-season. The struggles with the new coach, Doc Rivers, who is followed by his ever-growing past of disappointment. The lack of dominance we saw from Giannis and Dame this year. It just doesn’t sit right with me. Yes, they are the 3 seed. I am not saying they are a bad team. But brings me back to a point I’ve mentioned here about teams more than once, talent can carry you and cover up flaws……… but only for so long. This Bucks team unquestionably has talent, but they just don’t pass the eye test for me. Like the Clippers, but for different reasons, I see the Bucks beating themselves. This team has too much pressure and not enough consistency to perform at the level they need to perform at to move on. All of that is ignoring their opponent and assuming full health. Unfortunately for the Bucks, they fail all 3 of Himmy’s playoff success box checks. They aren’t playing the best ball they could or should be, their superstar Greek Freak is injured, and their seeding luck has them squaring up against a Pacers team full of fantastic role players that’s led by an established and reliable veteran in Siakam and a potential MVP winner Tyrese Haliburton. Doc Rivers will be on the hot seat, Damian Lillard will continue to question if Milwaukee was the right decision, and a superstar of the NBA’s future leads a basketball team named after a harness racing horse and automobile race pace car to round two.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76’ers
The 76’ers almost lost to a Heat team without a fully healthy Jimmy Butler. Respectfully, do we think Nicolas Batum will go 6 for 20 behind the arc again? Joel is a talent that deserves high praise despite being a free-throw merchant, and Tyrese Maxey is a special player to continue to watch. That being said, they don’t stack up to the train that is the New York Knicks. Tom Thibodeau has figured out a way to exhaust all his players just beneath the line of fault, to where they are performing on a high level that is for once in Tom’s career, sustainable. Jalen Brunson is as hot as a pistol right now and choosing against him is a hard thing to do. With the way he as an individual is playing complimented by the likes of DiVencenzo, Hartenstein, and Bogdanovic amongst others, it’s hard to see the Knicks slowing down against a team that stumbled into the playoffs. The 76’ers seem to have issues with their offense stalling at times and having a middle of the pack regular season defense, relative to the Knicks who had the 6th best. The 76’ers make me question my trust in them, while I trust Brunson to remain as hot as a Bunsen burner for at least this round. Knicks go on, Embiid prepares for USA basketball as he continues to get flak for not playing for his home country.
Those are my thoughts and picks for this first round. On a grander scale, I have Dallas beating the Celtics in the finals. Bold, I know. Bold. I think the Celtics are talented enough to cover up their flaws against a weaker East to make it to the finals, and will lose to whoever is there from the West. I think it’ll be the Nuggets or Dallas, choosing Dallas over the Nuggets due to the insanely high level of play arguably the two most skilled players in NBA history are playing at right now in Luka and Kyrie. I think winning a championship is impressive, I think winning a second after the year after winning the first is beyond impressive and irrationally difficult. Teams that have done that in any sport in the past, to me, are the pinnacle of success. Winning one is great. Winning another the following year after having a target on your back and making playing adjustments to inevitable roster changes and advanced schemes thrown against you? That’s a different level of success I believe deserves high praise; which I also think is extremely difficult to do. I don’t think the Nuggets are THAT much better than the Mavericks to beat them and then take down the Celtics to repeat. So with that, I will stick to my bold pick of Dallas beating the defending champs in the conference finals, to then meet and beat Boston in The Finals. I know, that is a bold playoff prediction. But I hope that you who read my words have done yourself a favor and have seen all 4 John Wick films. "Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat,” or, “Fortune Favors the Bold.”
As we move forward these playoffs, don’t just think of who has the best record or seeding, think of those three pillars as you watch these games. Only one will remain at the top of the heap when it’s all said and done, and that team very likely will have gotten there by playing their best ball, having great health, and of course, getting a little bit of luck.
Enjoy this first round of the playoffs!!!
Thank You for Reading,
- Mickey Swish
.
.
.
.
.
.
DISCLAIMER:
The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be gambling or financial advice, and should not be relied upon as such. We are not responsible for any actions or decisions taken by readers based on the information provided on this website.
The picks and predictions provided on this website are based on our own research and analysis and are intended to be used for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information for gambling or other purposes.
By accessing and using this website, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer, and you assume all risks and liabilities associated with your use of the information provided on this website.
 | A guest post by
|