Respect Where Respect is Due: NBA Play-In Thoughts & Picks

Via Golden State of Mind

We all have things we enjoy talking about, and some of us are lucky enough to share our thoughts with those willing to listen - or in this case, read. With that, is with great pleasure that I have to thank Orb Analytics Limited for bringing me aboard to share my thoughts on the NBA with you all. The season is ending for some fans, and for those who don’t watch until the playoffs, it’s just starting. I couldn’t be happier to join at this time as the NBA Playoffs truly are a wonderful thing. So, as Orb Analytics Limited has welcomed me, I bid a warm welcome back to you the readers.

With some humor and numbers people smarter than I calculated, I hope to bring you insight that makes you go, “interesting” and opinions you find at least somewhat worthy on my favorite Association, that of National Basketball.

Enough about me and more about where this glorious time of year begins, the play-in games.

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Respect Where Respect is Due

It’s been just a week and a few hours since the conclusion of one of the biggest sporting spectacles in the yearly American sports calendar, March Madness. Including the “First-Four” play-in games, we have 67 win-or-go-home games of basketball. 67 games full of polished basketball, chaotic bracket busters, and Cinderella stories fueled by players you’ve never heard of who will be sitting at office desks shortly after this March Madness or the next. Just an outrageous tournament that changes the text in history books while it captures the eyes of so many.

While Commissioner Adam Silver may get a lot of flak (All-Star Weekend deserves at least 100 more brutal hit pieces) about things he has or hasn’t done as the leader of the NBA, I really believe he deserves a lot of credit for the play-in tournament. He saw year in and year out how successful March Madness is and what does he do? He figured out how to add part of what makes it so special to the NBA. The danger. Forget the standard of having to play the top seeds in the first round of the playoffs, he found a way to make the bottom seeds of the playoffs be even more fearful of what seed they are with the play-in games. And on top of that, he is giving a chance to the 2 teams normally outside of the playoff cut line a chance to make it.

People love two things in sports more than anything: Win-or-go-home games, and stories. There’s a reason why people who don’t give a damn about college basketball – men's or women’s – all season long tune in for March Madness. By holding what was previously a guaranteed playoff position for seeds 7 and 8 in the balance and tossing a *potentially temporary* floatation device to seeds 9 and 10, this new addition to the playoff format has added an unignorable layer of drama. It gave us the incredible footage of Patrick Beverly tossing his jersey into the crowd after his 7-seeded Timberwolves beat the 8-seeded Clippers in ‘22, and last year, gave the number 7-seeded Miami Heat a chance, and then a SECOND chance at the playoffs, which proved to be enough chances TO MAKE IT TO THE FINALS.

So who knows what this year holds. This play-in format seems to be oh I don’t know, at least sorta successful so far.

Kudos to you, Mr. Ag.

Predictions

Before we go forward, clarification of the format. In both conferences: seeds 9 and 10 play each other, seeds 7 and 8 play each other. Whoever wins in the seed 9/10 game advances to play the loser of the seed 7/8 game. The loser of the seed 9/10 game will end the year on a “1, 2, 3, CANCUN!!!” break from the team huddle. The winner of the seed 7/8 game automatically goes through as the official 7^th seed of the bracket, facing their conference’s respective 2^nd seed in a series. As hinted at earlier, the loser of the seed 7/8 game gets one final chance at making the playoffs by facing the winner of seed 9/10. The winner of this game clinches the official 8^th seed of the playoffs, squaring up with their conference’s 1 seed. The loser of that game will get the always amazing, “Gone Fishing” treatment by the better every year Inside the NBA team of Shaq, Ernie, Kenny, & Charles.

I hope that makes sense. If not, find a graphic some NBA social media team member posted visualizing it all.

We start in the West.

The 9th-seeded Sacramento Kings face the *checks notes, yeah somehow this isn’t a typo,* 10th-seeded Golden State Warriors. As they say- the taller you are, the harder you fall. Seeing the Warriors holding on to playoff chances by a mere thread is something I think is a little unsettling to the majority of us. This year’s Warriors team has had its fair share of downs. Klay Thompson reminded the world that injuries and age are the downfall of us all (shouts out to ADTR fans) while Draymond added a concerning amount of footage to his ever-growing lowlight reel of him being a savage on the hardwood. On the other side of the coin, Steve Kerr continued to prove that he is one of the best coaches in the NBA while Steph reminded the world how and why he is the greatest shooter to ever walk this Earth. That being said, young talent, great coaching, and a first-ballot hall of famer can only keep you afloat for so long. The regression of a key core piece for years and the continuous behavioral issues of another played a big role in relegating the once buzz-saw Warriors to seed number 10.

The Sacramento Kings. What a fun and exciting bunch, huh? Malik Monk has a chance to win Sixth Man of the Year while sophomore Keon Ellis has risen when needed as a sneaky 3-point threat. De’Aaron Fox continues to be a fantastic young star, averaging over 26 a game. We all know how dangerous he is, he has to be one of the least enjoyable people to guard in the NBA. And Domantas Sabonis continues to – in my opinion – not get the credit he deserves by being a walking double-double, only missing averaging a triple-double this season by less than 2 assists. It’s hard for me to believe he would, though he is recognized and appreciated, not get more praise if he played in a big market like LA, Chicago, Boston, or New York. Cons of playing in Sacramento, am I right?

This game may be the single most interesting because I think it is the hardest to pick who comes out on top. On one hand, have a revenge game from the Kings as payback for the Warriors eliminating them in the first round last year #nolightingthebeam. On the other, you have a statement game from the Warriors as they can quell the hopes of a young team once again and remind the Association that they’re the damn Golden State Warriors and they still have their core, no matter what (physical or mental) shape they are in. All in all, I think the Kings have too much to worry about to get them to the next round. Important pieces like Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk are injured, and the Warriors still are, well, the Warriors. The Warriors’ defensive matchups and schemes exposed some of Sabonis’ flaws last year, and even the best of Foxes can only do so much. As I mentioned, I think this game is kinda a toss-up and wouldn’t be too surprised if the Kings pull off a win here. But at the end of the day, betting against Steph Curry in a win-or-go-home game is not a business I want any part of.

7th-seeded New Orleans Pelicans against 8th-seeded Los Angeles Lakers. I have less to say about this West matchup than the previous one. I feel the Pelicans have really put the NBA on notice this year. A healthier Zion Williamson has obviously been a great thing for this franchise, and Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum continue to be great and important pieces on any team. They have something other than gumbo cooking down there in New Orleans, good for them. Bad news is, they’re going up against a Lakers team playing the right quality of ball at the right time. They changed their lineup and Darvin Ham has perfected the role of looking like a coach on the bench, they got things moving in LA. Though Anthony Davis suffered an injury (hip spasms?) in game 82, it is believed that he will be good to go come game time. …… and then oh yeah, I forgot, the Lakers still have LeBron James. He’s not the King of Old, but he’s still The King. I doubt he’s going to want or let his team lose to play the winner of the seed 9/10 game to try to get overall seed number 8 to play the Thunder, as we all know how TORCHED he will get by the media for that. So, I think he is going to do what he has always done best, make the most out of the talent on his team and perform at high enough levels to beat his opponent.

I am not a country fan so I don’t know how the hell I know this lyric, but when I heard this line for the first time it really stuck with me. I think I heard Doug Gottlieb say it on his radio show talking about LeBron James after his 40-point game this season. I think it applied then and will apply to any all games LeBron will play until he retires, and that absolutely includes a play-in win or go play the winner of the seed 9/10 game***.

“I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was.”

Phenomenal line by Toby Keith, rest in peace.

Lakers clinch seed number 7.

In the seed 9/10 game, I think the Warriors’ veterans and Curry’s superstar abilities lead them past the injured and inexperienced Kings. In the seed 7/8 game, I’ll take LeBron and the hot-ish Lakers over the respectable Pelicans. Lakers clinch seed 7, and the Kings have to wait to light that beam in the playoffs. From there, that’s the Warriors against the Pelicans to clinch that final 8th-seed. My positive and negative feelings towards the Warriors remain true, and I think that simply will be too much for the Pelicans. The Pelicans have a damn good roster, but again, betting against Steph in a win-or-go-home game is not for me. Warriors clinch seed 8 and send the Pelicans looking for gumbo restaurants in Cancun.

On to the East.

The Bulls come in as the 9^th seed, and the Hawks come in at 10. This can be said about most teams in most sports, but when playing their best basketball, the Chicago Bulls seem so much better than a 9 seed. On paper, they have a ton of talent, and a variety of it. They have a double-double a game in Nikola Vucevic; who operates beautifully as a focal point of the offense at the top of the key, and when on the block shows he has deceivingly effective post moves for a slower guy. Andre Drummond picks up the slack for the tough, physical abilities down low that Vuc lacks. He’s aggressive, much more athletic than people give him credit for, and is a rebounding machine. Alex Caruso is a phenomenal player who has legendary Bulls’ color commentator and former Bulls player Stacey King frequently saying he sees 5 of Caruso on the court because Caruso is seemingly everywhere doing everything, all of the time. Coby White may win Most Improved Player of the year, and DeMar DeRozan is I think, arguably the most underrated star in the NBA.

Yet despite all this talent, they somehow stumble into the playoffs below .500 as seed numero 9. Why you ask? It’s because of what I mentioned at the beginning of the previous paragraph, they look great on paper and when they play their best ball they can hang with the best of ‘em…… the problem is they frequently don’t play their best ball. Zach Lavine being injured is nothing I would ever wish on him or anyone else, but his being on the bench is the best thing that has happened to this team in a long time. It proved that the Bulls with this roster don’t need 2 ball dominant players to be successful in him and DeMar, and it gave opportunities to other players to get those minutes and shine- which Coby made the most of. But despite the realization that this team can function without Zach, his absence also showed that this team needs another scorer more often than not. This roster played too inconsistent and struggled to stay in a regular groove. Some nights Coby was the leading scorer, other nights it was DeMar, other’s Vuc went off. I understand that’s a great problem to have and it isn’t a true knock, but when there’s inconsistency when things go right, the lack of consistency when things go wrong is easier to emphasize and notice. This team struggled with owning an identity and beating teams they should have easily beaten, often playing down to the level of lesser teams and too often losing those games. The Bulls could be better than 9, but due to regularly failing to play at their optimal level, deserve their seeding.

I don’t have as much to say about the Hawks because I don’t see them as that frustrating of a team and I see less potential in them. Dejounte Murray deserves to be on a higher platform in the eyes of the media and fans in my opinion. He’s a fantastic athlete and can get buckets in many ways at the expense of different defensive plans. We all know Trae Young is an elite 3-point shooter and can win the Hawks games on that alone. On top of that, he’s an underrated passer averaging almost 11 assists per game this year. Bogdan Bogdanovic can be a deadly sniper if you don’t respect his game like you should, and Jalen Johnson has really proven to be a key, productive player in their rotation.

The downside of the Hawks in general and specifically for this game are two things. First, the fact that they are injured. Johnson, Okongwu, and Bey are all out, taking a huge chunk out of the Hawks’ regular rotation players. Is that the nail in their coffin? Perhaps not, but being anything less than full strength in a win-or-go-home game isn’t advisable. Secondly, I just don’t trust their offense schemes and think their defense can and will be exploited. On the flip side of me saying Trae Young can win the Hawks game with his 3-point shooting, he can absolutely lose them games with that too. I think his offensive game sometimes feels too limited and forceful. Despite his great numbers and play, I don’t trust his style in a win-or-go-home game against Alex Caruso, one of the, if not the single greatest perimeter defenders in the National Basketball Association. 3’s and lobs work in the regular season, but things are a little different in the playoffs. And on the other end of the court, exploiting mismatches by Coby and DeMar will likely be a big part of the Bulls’ offensive game plan. Can the Atlanta Hawks keep up with the speedy and potential most improved player of the year in Coby White? Can they stop the incredible footwork of the clutch player of the year contender DeMar DeRozan? Time will tell, but I think not. The Hawks have talent but will live or die by the 3. Chicago has home-court advantage, one of the greatest clutch players in the league, and a white player who wears an upside-down Nike headband. Yeah, good luck Atlanta. Bulls advance.

Arguably the most interesting matchup of the play-in, the 7th-seeded Philadelphia 76ers against the 8th-seeded Miami Heat. You have one of the most talented big men the world has ever known in Joel Embiid against a man who truly doesn’t care at all what anyone in this world thinks about him in Jimmy Butler. May I remind you of Jimmy saying, “this is my emotional state” when he showed up to media day this year shocking the NBA world with how he looked. Google it if you aren’t familiar. Aside from the antics, Jimmy can hoop like no other, especially this time of year. What a matchup.

The 76ers have the return of Embiid who is a talent beyond unique, not much needs to be said about how he can carry a team. Who predominantly stole the show in Joel’s absence? Tyrese Maxey. Oh my, what a dog he is. Similar to Zach Lavine on the Bulls, Joel being on the bench really allowed other players to shine. We all knew Maxey was good, but this good? Cam Payne finally figuring it out? Tobias Harris continuing to be a reliable scorer? The dog Patrick Beverley everyone hates playing against and wishes he was on their team? And who can forget Kelly Oubre Jr. averaging 15 points and 3 “you’re a bit**”’s to the refs per game? What a season from him.

They got Embiid back, and that’s scary for any team. The addition of the pre-injury MVP favorite makes this team seemingly better than the 7^th seed. However. Their opponent is Jimmy excuse me Himmy* Butler and the Miami Heat. Showing my cards at the beginning rather than the end here; I once created a Wikipedia account purely for the reason to edit Jimmy’s Wikipedia page. I changed every single “Butler” on his page to “Buckets,” and in various places added his true full name, “Jimmy G. Buckets” in some areas explaining that the “G” stands for “Gets.” Credit again to the Bulls’ color commentator Stacey King. But yeah, I actually did that, and that’s how I feel about Jimmy’s game. His new and improved (and more accurate) Wikipedia page lasted for a handful of hours but it got changed back and my ability to edit Jimmy’s name was revoked. Worth it.

I am going to get unconventional here. I think no matter who wins this game, the Heat will get into the playoffs. Either they win this game against the 76ers and clinch the 7th seed, or they lose and beat the winner of 9/10, who I have as the Bulls. But I don’t have the same confidence in Philadelphia, call me crazy. Even with Embiid, I still see them as the 76ers, a team that has struggled to get things right consistently for so long. I think that Adebayo will do a good enough job to slow Joel down, and Maxey won’t have enough firepower to support the rest of the required points needed. I think Tyler Herro and (if playing, GTD) Duncan Robinson will do a good job stretching out the 76ers’ defense and hitting shots they are signed in the NBA to do. Keeping Embiid somewhat out of the paint will be key, operated by interesting pick-and-roll schemes with Bam and Jimmy. I expect to see iso mismatching, offensive motions designed to exploit Philly’s second unit, and Jimmy being Jimmy as the keys to reminding the lovely Philly fans that the Heat made it to the finals last year.

So, with that, I see Philadelphia falling to Miami and believe it or not, falling again to Chicago. I know, “Mickey, what are you talking about, crazy bold picks.” Well, guess what. If the best seed won every game, gambling wouldn’t exist, we wouldn’t watch, and there’d be no point in playing. What’s special about March Madness? Upsets. Sometimes you have to be bold, Orb fans.

I just don’t have a ton of faith in the 76ers in a do-or-die game against the Heat. The Heat are that team that thrives off being in pressure situations and having their backs against the wall. And Himmy? That man is a cold-blooded psychopath we all have the pleasure of watching. I will never ever forget the shi* he was talking to the Milwaukee Bucks last year…… WHEN THE HEAT WERE LOSING. That man is special beyond what special can describe and I find it hard within me to pick against him this time of year. They don’t have the same team as last year but he still took that team to the finals and I will be siding with Himmothy Gets Buckets until proven otherwise. Heat over 6ers, Bulls over Philly. Not all processes are worth trusting.

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And that does it for my thoughts on the play-in round of this year’s NBA playoffs. In the West, I have the Warriors’ experience getting them seed 8, and LeBron leading the Lakers to seed 7. And in the East, I have the Bulls operating on the cylinders they could and should be operating on to get them seed 8, and Jimmy Getting enough Buckets to clinch the 7^th seed for Miami.

Regardless of who wins and who loses, this round should provide some really good basketball full of outstanding chess move decisions by coaches. These games will be intense and worth watching, I hope you enjoy them.

While we prepare the NFL draft and its rumor mill runs on all cylinders, take solace in knowing the best basketball of the year begins today. So get your popcorn, get comfy, and get ready to more likely than not curse out your favorite team when they don’t make it all the way, followed by seeking comfort in watching the famed and familiar Inside the NBA panel on TNT. The weather is getting warmer, flowers are starting to bloom, and the NBA Playoffs kick off this evening. Have a wonderful time watching these win-or-go-home games, this is basketball at its finest.

With Gratitude and Excitement,

Mickey Swish

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