⚾ Orb MLB Model - All-Star Break Update
A quick check-in on our new MLB predictive model! For those who missed it, we launched our newest product live on 6/22. Since then, it has made 136 moneyline picks, going 72-64, +15.75 units, for a +11.58% ROI.
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When we shared it here on July 1st, I talked about how current results were unsustainable over a larger sample, but that didn’t mean the model couldn’t continue to profit. Since July 2nd, the model has gone a much more modest 33-35, +1.77 units, +2.60% ROI. While I always wish for a higher return, making any amount of profit in sports gambling is always a win and against the odds. These last two weeks are also a perfect real-world example of how a model can continue to win money, but at a more realistic rate that actually lowers ROI from previous performance.
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Orb Model Playoff Push!
With the MLB All-Star break wrapping up, we can’t wait to monitor how the model performs in the second half of the season. 136 picks is still a very small sample size in the grand scheme of modeling, so I am curious to see how our performance by pick type changes. As you can see above, the model has done exceptionally well when picking away teams (+21.06 units), but is struggling when picking home teams (-5.31 units). It has been profitable across both the favorite and underdog class, but has nearly double the return when predicting teams at +money odds. One level deeper, it makes perfect sense why its overall best pick type is underdogs on the road. In the extremely small sample so far, our model is 16-9, 64%, +15.15 on these predictions.
If you haven’t already, sign up and follow along for the second half of the season! Of course, we hope to see the model continue to make money for our readers, but continue to emphasize that past performance is not a promise of future results. Our goal in this game is to use the power of predictive models to identify edges in betting markets. The goal is NOT to win every pick, as nice as that would be to do. If it were, no one could play. The process that won 72 moneyline picks so far and is +15.75 units is the same process that lost 64 picks to date.
-Team Orb Analytics
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