Orb Analytics Week 9 Preview – Picks & Insights
If you missed week 8’s recap, you can find it linked here.
I can’t believe it’s already week 9! The season always feels like it takes forever to start and then flies right by. With no official mid-way point in a 17-game season, we will be doing a halftime breakdown in next week’s recap where we take a look at our season goals heading into the year and note which ones are on track to hit, and which ones are not. We come into the halfway mark with a 59.5% accuracy against the spread, so our single most important goal is in a good place as of now, but the Orb has a lot on the line this week and we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves. The models are making 4 spread picks this week, 3 on Sunday and one on Monday. A perfect 4-0 weekend would raise our hit rate 3.5% while a disastrous 0-4 performance would drop it 5.2%. The double-edged sword of the models performing well is that a bad weekend damages your overall results more than a good weekend improves them. So the results from the picks below will be factored into our halfway-point recap. Depending on how this weekend goes, expect to see our model’s overall accuracy anywhere between 54.3%-63.0% ATS. Next week’s recap will also include some exciting data-nerd news about the Orb as a whole going back to last year’s results. I took a trip back to sophomore year stats class to test the statistical significance of the Orb’s accuracy, so get ready for some Z-test talk!
In the meantime, every pick matters and greatly impacts the success of the Orb’s season. Last week our models were all over big underdogs which resulted in a winning 3-2 result. On Sunday, the models are switching it up once again and like the small favorites:
Spreads:
Falcons -3.5
Cardinals -1.5
Rams -1.0
Chiefs/Buccaneers (MNF - Premium)
Moneyline:
Ravens
Bengals
Bills
Falcons
Commanders
Cardinals
Rams
Vikings
Chiefs/Buccaneers (MNF - Premium)
Interestingly, this is an area that the Orb has struggled so far this season. When predicting small favorites of under a field goal to cover, our models are just 5-7, 41.7%. They look to improve on that record in our main slate of games. With 4 picks out, the Orb will need to hit at a rate higher than its overall accuracy for a winning weekend ATS which is always an interesting place to be. We will have to root for overperformance!
I’m not sure how I feel about this week’s picks. The Cowboys need this one more than the Falcons do and the Orb has gotten burned before picking on Kirk as a favorite. I like the Falcons as underdogs, but don’t know if I have seen enough to be confident in them laying points. I have been very impressed with the Cardinals recently and am happy they stuck with Kyler through some uncertainty and high draft capital options. This Bears defense is great but has been trending down in recent weeks. Coming off a historic embarrassment from Tyrique Stevenson that I think just as much should be placed on their coaching staff, we will see how they respond. Caleb Williams has been up and down so far in his rookie season but until his level of play stabilizes, he feels like one of those quarterbacks that struggles when you bet on him and lights it up when you pick against him. My guess is we will see the best version of the #1 overall pick in Arizona. I may be one of the last Seahawks believers outside of Seattle. I don’t have any data to back up how good I think this team is, or at least how good they ‘should’ be. The Rams have all their playmakers back though, considering how easily they moved the ball on Minnesota’s defense, they should be able to keep it up against Seattle. So the Rams pick is probably my favorite from the Orb on Sunday, but my personal accuracy against the spread is far from 59.5%.
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Oh my