Orb Analytics Week 6 Recap – Performance & Results
The Orb had a great performance in week 6! Our models hit their 4th consecutive +unit week against the spread, going 4-2. They complemented this by also having a winning week on moneyline predictions, going 7-1 on these picks. Since our disastrous start to the season in week 2, the Orb has fully turned things around and is firing on all cylinders at the 1/3rd season mark. The models are +11.3 units in the last four weeks since our -6.7 unit stumble out of the gate, with the majority of the profits coming against the spread. We still have the vast majority of the season ahead of us with plenty of room for good and bad weeks to impact our totals, but I wanted to highlight quickly how the Orb has been trending since week 2.
I mentioned that week 6 had the potential to get ‘crazy’ since almost every game featured a road team favorite and a home team underdog. Early in the 2024/25 season, it turns out that a crazy week meant the favorites completely dominated as they covered 12/14 games and won 13/14 outright. This was easily the most chalk week of the season so far, which meant the sportsbooks got killed. So while most of the Orb’s picks were against the public and on the side of Las Vegas, we found a perfect middle ground where our models were profitable while the house still got crushed. This is something everyone can be happy about. Vegas doesn’t get knocked down for too long though, so I’ll be curious to watch how they do against the public in the next few weeks.
For the 3rd week in a row, the Orb started on the right foot and hit its Thursday Night spread pick. This marked its 6th non-Sunday premium spread pick in a row to keep the streak alive as we were on the right side of a big 49ers win in Seattle. Our models also hit their first ‘Baker’ of the season as they correctly predicted the Browns to cover the +9.5 points but ultimately lose outright to the Eagles. They unfortunately missed on both games featuring a new quarterback as neither the Patriots nor the Raiders were able to keep things close. While hitting one of these for a 5-1 ATS week would have been amazing, we will never view a 66.7% week as anything other than a success. Just to emphasize how much this game is stacked against the player and rigged in the house’s favor, a 4-2 week against the spread at -110 odds nets a +1.636 unit win while the inverse, a 2-4 performance ATS would result in a -2.182 unit loss.
Here is how each model pick performed in week 6:
Spread:
49ers -3.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Ravens -6.5 ✅
Browns +9.5 ✅
Patriots +6.5 ❌
Packers -5.5 ✅
Raiders +3 ❌
All spread picks: 4-2, 66.7%, +1.636 units
Moneyline:
49ers (TNF - Premium) ✅
Ravens ✅
Buccaneers ✅
Eagles ✅
Packers ✅
Raiders ❌
Lions ✅
Bengals ✅
All moneyline picks: 7-1, 87.5%, +2.118 units
Overall a +3.754 unit performance.
Week 6 Model Performance:
Favorites covered 12/14 games (85.7%) and won 13/14 outright (92.9%).
Weekly spreads:
Weekly Moneyline:
Season-To-Date Model Performance:
Not including week 1, favorites have covered 41/76 games (53.9%) and won 48/76 (63.2%) outright this season.
Season spreads:
Season moneyline:
Official Orb Picks Season Results:
Season spread picks: 19-11, 63.3%, +6.3 units
Season moneyline picks: 24-17, 58.5%, -1.6 units
It is really rewarding to see the upward trend in this graph, particularly from the spread models which are surprisingly above the season totals and being dragged down by moneyline performance. It would be great to see both the spread and moneyline unit totals above 0 and for the first time this season, but that day will have to wait as moneyline got a few units back but is still -1.6 on the season. Let’s hope the spread models can continue their current form as they will look to hit their 5th consecutive winning week in week 7, which would certainly be defying the odds.
Confusion Matrix:
One of my ambitious season-long goals for the Orb is to be profitable when picking both the favorite and the underdog to cover. This would mean ending the season with above 52.4% accuracy on both. Through week 6, I am thrilled that the models are performing 10+% above this target for each. This sample size is still small and of course, bad performances in the future would negatively impact this, but we strongly believe in celebrating the wins along the way, even if these numbers end up coming down by the time we reach the playoffs.
I haven’t had the chance to run the models yet for week 7 so paid subscribers, be on the lookout Thursday morning for a potential premium pick or model leans and analysis. Free subscribers, we will see you Friday morning for all of the week 7 Sunday picks. As always, thank you for supporting the Orb project!
- Team Orb Analytics
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