Orb Analytics Week 16 Recap: The Week That Never Was
The Orb had nearly as average a performance as statistically possible in Week 16. From a unit perspective, it is as if Week 16 never happened. Our spread model hit at the dreaded 50% mark, going 2-2 on its predictions and losing just the vig associated with spread odds for a -0.128 result. Our moneyline model went 9-3, 75% but with laying so much on big favorites this resulted in just a +0.081 gain. So when rounded, one model lost 0.1 units and the other won 0.1 units. Essentially the Orb ‘held serve’ and skipped from Week 15 right to Week 17.
With the Christmas Day games kicking Week 17 off, we have a shorter recap post and are focused on finishing out the season strong. The next two weeks will determine if this season is ultimately a successful one for our models so every spread pick feels like a playoff game from here until Wild Card Weekend starts. We have 6 games before Sunday, in which the Orb is making 3 spread picks and 5 moneyline ones. Premium members, you can find all those predictions linked here in our Christmas Day Special.
Here is how each Orb pick performed in Week 16:
Spreads:
Ravens -6.5 (Saturday - Premium) ✅
Lions -6.5 ✅
Jaguars +1.5 ❌
Buccaneers -3.5 ❌
All spreads: 2-2, 50%, -0.128 units
Moneyline:
Chargers (TNF - Premium) ✅
Ravens (Saturday - Premium) ✅
Bengals ✅
Cardinals ❌
Eagles ❌
Falcons ✅
Colts ✅
Lions ✅
Vikings ✅
Bills ✅
Buccaneers ❌
Packers (MNF - Premium) ✅
All moneyline: 9-3, 75%, +0.081 units
Overall a -0.101 unit performance.
Week 16 Model Performance:
Favorites covered 11/16 games (68.8%) and won 13/16 outright (81.3%).
Weekly spreads:
Weekly Moneyline:
Season-To-Date Model Performance:
Not including week 1, favorites have covered 122/224 games (54.5%) and won 159/224 (71.0%) outright this season.
Season spreads:
Season moneyline:
Official Orb Picks Season Results:
Season spread picks: 41-36, 53.2%, +1.3 units
Season moneyline picks: 96-42, 69.6%, +2.6 units
Confusion Matrix:
We lost 0.2% on our season accuracy with our 2-2 Week 16 performance but still sit above our target goal of 52.4% heading into the Christmas Day picks. Happy holidays to you, the Orb faithful! We are incredibly thankful to everyone who reads and supports our content and want to say thank you for all you have done for us.
- Team Orb Analytics
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