Orb Analytics Week 15 Preview – Picks & Insights
If you missed the recap of the Orb’s winning performance in Week 14, check it out linked here.
With last week’s results, our models currently sit on the right side of our season-long 52.4% accuracy goal against the spread, albeit barely. Every result from here until the playoffs will have a significant impact on determining if the 2024-25 season is deemed successful. Our models did not come to a consensus result on many games for Sunday but all agreed on three spread outcomes. Here is what the Orb predicts will happen over the weekend:
Spreads:
Bengals -4.5
Browns +4.5
Eagles -5.5
Moneyline:
49ers (TNF - Premium) ❌
Commanders
Bengals
Ravens
Eagles
Packers
Let’s go through the model’s picks ranking them from my favorite to least favorite:
Browns +4.5: This is easily my favorite pick from the Orb, which might be a bad omen. Every NFL fan outside of Kansas City has been astounded watching these Chiefs get away with murder week after week. Out of all of the 12-1 teams in NFL history, this has to be the only one to lay less than 5 points to a 3-10 team even on the road. This Browns offense under Jameis has become one of the most fun to watch in the league. It is borderline appointment television given how unpredictable each play is. The Browns are trending positively in EPA/Game on both sides of the ball over the last three weeks, while this Kansas City defense has declined the 5th most in that time. At the very least, even if our models get this one wrong, this is the more fun side to be on.
Bengals -4.5: The Orb is playing with house money on the Bengals after getting lucky on them covering in Dallas. While we still can’t trust this Cincinnati defense, they once again find themselves going up against a low-rated offense in the Titans. I feel pretty neutral about this pick, gun to my head I may have taken the points on Tennessee personally. But the Bengals’ playoff odds jumped from 2% all the way to 3% with their win Monday Night and the Titans should be focusing on the draft at this point so at least the models found themselves on the side that ‘needs’ this one more.
Eagles -5.5: Comfortably my least favorite prediction from the Orb for Sunday. I am bending the knee to Pittsburgh. Their advanced metrics aren’t as good as the team we see on the field but it doesn’t matter. So while the Orb is screaming to us that their record is overinflated, I don’t care. They will probably just win this one outright because that is what they do. Every time the Orb picks against the Steelers as underdogs I just mentally chalk that one up as a loss so congratulations to anyone taking Pittsburgh to cover. Philadelphia has the most efficient rushing attack in the league with +0.178 EPA/Rush on the highest volume in the league at 36.4 attempts per game. For reference, the team that runs the ball the 2nd most often in the league coincidentally is the Steelers who average 33.7 attempts per game but add -0.062 EPA/Rush when doing so. Highlighting how impressive it is to be 1st in efficiency while also being 1st in volume. While Pittsburgh's defense ranks highly overall, they are just 14th against the run which is where the Eagles dominate. Just one reason why the models are on the Eagles to cover, but they do not factor Pittsburgh's apparent deal with the devil into their equation.
Thanks for supporting the page and have a great weekend!
- Team Orb Analytics
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