Orb Analytics Week 12 Preview – Picks & Insights
Every week is independent from one another so last week’s disaster on Sunday technically has no impact on the Orb’s week 12 predictions. But I would be lying if I said it wasn’t looming over the Orb mentally as I ran the models for a brand new Sunday slate. A winning weekend here would go a long way for our season and help get us back on track. The Orb responded last night and just like last week, we are starting out with a Thursday Night win as the Orb hit on the Browns +3.5. This brings our season record up to 56.4% heading into Sunday. Unlike last week, let’s hope they don’t then go 0-4 on their Sunday and Monday Night spread predictions.
Here is what the Orb predicts will happen on Sunday:
Spreads:
Browns +3.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅
Rams +2.5
Cardinals -1.5
Raiders +6.5
Ravens/Chargers (MNF - Premium)
Moneyline:
Vikings
Buccaneers
Texans
Commanders
Lions
Broncos
Cardinals
Rams
Ravens/Chargers (MNF - Premium)
Week 12 Bonus Analysis:
Want to know who is covering spreads this season and who isn’t? Look at what is happening in the redzone. If you have ever gambled on an NFL game, you have probably muttered some version of the following sentences to yourself:
“We need to hold them to a field goal here”
“We can’t settle for a field goal here”
And yes, when you bet on a team it becomes “we.” But a lot of the time when the Orb models hit or miss a pick, it feels like it came down to teams settling for 3 points or not being able to hold their opponent to a field goal attempt rather than a blowout one way or another. These 4th down decisions are when it is most clear that NFL coaches simply care about winning and unfortunately for us the gamblers, couldn’t care less about our picks. No duh. So I wanted to see if there was any relationship between redzone performance and cover rate. Rather than looking at just offensive or defensive redzone conversion rates, I averaged them to get a number that reflects the team overall on both sides of the ball. For example, a team that scores a touchdown 75% of the time they are in the rezone but keeps their opponent out just 25% of the time would have a 50% overall redzone rate.
Here is what I found:
Just for the exercise, let’s remove teams that are close enough to the league average in conversion rate that their logo crosses the vertical mean line. This means removing the Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bengals and Colts. What we see from the remaining teams far enough away from the league average is interesting. Out of the 11 teams that dominate overall in the redzone, 9 of them are covering more than 52.4% of the time and have therefore been profitable against the spread. Out of the 15 teams that are underperforming overall in the redzone, 10 of them are covering less than 52.4% of the time and have not been profitable to bet on this season.
This stat isn’t an end-all-be-all predictor of who will cover the spread any given week, but throughout the season the data suggests that betting on teams that win in the redzone may just be a winning strategy. The ‘old school’ football fan in me doesn’t love how often teams have started going for it on 4th down rather than taking the field goal, but I think the worst is still yet to come. In the same way that basketball changed when teams really started to understand that a 3-pointer is worth 150% of a 2-pointer, I unfortunately think we will continue to see fewer field-goal attempts as teams game plan around the fact that 7 points (assuming a made extra point) is worth 233% of a made field goal. It’s less about 4 extra points and more about the percentage a play is worth.
- Team Orb Analytics
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