Orb Analytics Super Bowl Picks & Preview: Welcome to the Dark Side
Only one game of football separates us from 208 dark days until the NFL kicks off again in September. A champion will be crowned on Sunday and then the 2024/25 season will be in the record books and become data for us to analyze and debate in the future. It pains me to say, but the Orb is making its last prediction of the season on the bad guys:
The good news is that the models are backing Mahomes and Reid for the 3rd straight Super Bowl. The even better news is that I, the world’s worst gambler, disagree with this pick from the models. Other than quarterback and coaching, I think Philly has the advantage in almost every other position group on the field. Two years ago when these teams met in the Super Bowl the Eagles were the ones laying 1.5 points. If anything I think this is a better version of Philadelphia and a slightly weaker version of Kansas City. So the Chiefs now being the favorites doesn’t make too much sense to me.
As we continue moving deeper in the playoffs and further away from our regular season updated data, we continue to have less theoretical predictive ability over these games. It's why we separate the playoffs from our official season. But in the playoffs so far, the Eagles have put up more impressive simple stats:
The biggest discrepancy has been in the run game on both sides of the ball. The Eagles have dialed up the ‘Saquon 50+ yard TD play’ a few times this postseason, but even without these outliers they were able to run the ball consistently in January. Meanwhile, Kansas City has struggled in the run game. They averaged just 93 yards against the Texans and Bills, and both of those offenses found success running on the Chiefs for an average of 148 yards per game.
Kansas City has a slight edge so far in the postseason passing attack with the AFC Championship win over Buffalo being one of their more impressive games this season. The Eagels’ pass defense came into the playoffs ranked #1 and I think their average yards against is a little inflated by game scripts. They have been leading almost the entire time in all of their playoff matchups, forcing opponents to abandon the run and air it out more. So while no one will be shutting down a Mahomes-led offense, I wouldn’t be too worried about Philadelphia’s secondary if I was rooting for them.
We are ending the season with perhaps the most interesting betting split of the year. Although Kansas City is favored, the public is all over Philadelphia. 69% of the tickets, representing 81% of the money, are on the Eagles to cover the +1.5 via sportsbettingdime. 67% of the money is on the Eagles to win outright. So Philadelphia is a public underdog, and despite the money being so skewed in one direction, the line hasn’t moved. While predicting favorites always feels like the ‘square’ play, it doesn’t get any more square than backing the team with 81% of the money on them to cover. Not that square bets don’t win, just ask the public who crushed it on favorites all year. So the Orb model finds itself on the side of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the sportsbooks. There are certainly worse spots to be in.
Our paid readers got a preview this season into a new linear model that we have been testing out behind the scenes. It is still in beta testing and not a part of the official pick-making process yet but it has shown a lot of promise so far. It agrees with the markets that this one will be very tight, predicting the Chiefs to win 23-22, making the number 1 and siding with the entire public on the Eagles spread. I’m curious to see how it does going against our current models.
The Super Bowl is about much more than who is going to win the game and cement themselves in NFL history as a champion. It’s about prop bets and having fun trying to predict crazy outcomes within the game itself. We asked some of the members of the Orb team for their favorite prop on Sunday. These picks obviously contain no data, algorithms, or thought, for that matter, other than what would be fun to lose money on. Here is everyone’s favorite prop (odds are via Fanduel):
: Xavier Worthy - Player to have the most yards after catch from a single reception - next gen stats (+390)
: Each team to score 1+ TD & 1+ FG in each half (+1400)
: Isaiah Pachco 3+ receptions (+550)
: Travis Kelce to record 25+ receiving yards in each half (+190)
Orb Apprentice: Jalen Hurts anytime TD ( -115)
: Will there be overtime? - Yes (+1200)
Super Bowl LIX - The Triple Crown
Despite being further removed from updated data, the Orb has done well in the three Super Bowls it has been around for. In the model’s 1.0 year of testing, it hit on the Rams moneyline and the under (when we still did game totals) and missed on the Rams spread. In the first version of Sunday’s matchups, it hit on the Chiefs +1.5, Chiefs moneyline, and over the 50.5 points. And last year it hit on the Chiefs +2.5 against the 49ers, after we stopped predicting totals and it did not have a consensus pick on the moneyline. So let’s see if we can finish the season on a win and continue the strong championship performance.
- Team Orb Analytics
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