Orb Analytics NFL Week 2 Recap - A Great Start to the Season 🦅🏴☠️
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A perfectly average 3-3 performance ATS was heavily lifted by our Moneyline model as the Orb started the season off +4.991 units overall in Week 2! Of course, we would rather flip it and have our Spread model be the big winner, but after starting off last season 1-4 ATS, the statistically expected 3-3 doesn’t seem so bad at the moment. Especially when the Orb happened to miss the first two picks in the early slate of games, and battled back by finishing 3-1, starting with the Eagles -1.5.
The most exciting aspect of this performance is that our moneyline model hit on both underdog +money upsets it predicted! It disagreed with the market that the Vikings and the Texans should be favored, and is now 2-0 on its upset picks. While neither of these teams was a massive underdog, +158 and +127 odds translate to 38.76% and 44.05% implied odds of happening. Upsets, especially the smaller ones, are easy to dismiss after the fact, but we are thrilled that the Orb was able to predict both of these before they happened at +money value.
We now all have another data point on every team and are starting to learn more every time we see them take the field. Some teams that got off to a hot start last week were able to keep it going, while others came down to earth. Some teams that performed poorly in week one bounced back, while others have now dug themselves into a 0-2 hole they will need to get out of starting in Week 3. But before we look forward and try to predict what will happen next Sunday, where is how the Orb performed across all of its picks in Week 2:
Week 2 Orb Model Results
Spreads:
Eagles -1.5 ✅
Falcons +3.5 ✅
Raiders +3.5 ❌
All spread picks: 3-3. 50%, -0.093 units.
Moneyline:
Packers (TNF - Premium) (-166) ✅
Ravens (Premium) (-740) ✅
Bills (-276) ✅
Cowboys (-232) ✅
Steelers (-155) ❌
Rams (-232) ✅
Cardinals (-288) ✅
Eagles (-108) ✅
Falcons (+158) ✅
Buccaneers (Premium) (+127) ✅
All moneyline picks: 9-1, 90%, +5.084 units.
Overall, a +4.991 units. This was 11.7 units better than the model performed in our Week 2 disaster last season. While it could theoretically lose it all next week (or preferably, add to our winnings), this certainly sets up the rest of the season better than we have in the past. The most critical takeaway would be that 50% ATS isn’t our goal here, but we never complain about a 5-unit winning performance overall.
Season to Date Orb Model Results
Now that our official season has started, all results will be on the records below, so you will always know how our models are performing.
Unit Performance:
Favorite vs. Underdog and Home vs. Away Spread Confusion Matrices:
Spread Model Battle - Classification vs Linear
Our modeling strategy this season combines both a classification and a linear model. However, I think it will be interesting to track both of their records individually to see which one performs better over the whole season. A reminder that for some games, our linear model makes our line the same number as the market line. This is considered a “no-pick” and will not be counted, so the number of picks the linear model makes will be less than the total number of games. The classification model makes a pick on every game.
Week 2 was a big “win” for our classification model as it was very accurate ATS over the entire slate of games. This week, it happened to be dragged down by a bad performance from the Linear model. We will see the inverse of this happen as well. The goal is that overall they can combine better over a smaller sample size of picks they agree on than either model performs individually throughout the season.
Model edge could also play an unseen factor in the graph above. The linear model could perform at or below 50% on all picks, but may end up performing significantly better on picks with a certain edge over the market. So that overall accuracy could end up being misleadingly high or low and won't tell the whole story.
Orb Faithful - Reader Consensus Picks
A down week for our readers on the poll consensus picks. The Falcons/Vikings and Chargers/Raiders games split the vote 50-50, so we will consider those “no picks” or stay-aways from the audience. The Orb Faithful hit on the Buccaneers +2.5, but missed on the Chiefs +1.5, Browns +11.5, and Bears +6.5 for a record of 1-3 in Week 2. This brings your overall record to 4-3, still in the green. Let’s see if you can bounce back in Week 3!
Paid readers, be on the lookout for premium TNF picks tomorrow. All readers, get ready for the model’s free Week 3 picks on Friday!
-Team Orb Analytics
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