NFL Week 4 Newsletter and Picks

The Orb had a solid bounce-back performance in week 3! Our models performed well against the spread, going 3-2 on Sunday’s picks and then 2-0 for our paid subscribers in Monday Night’s doubleheader picking the Bills and Commanders to both cover. Overall a 5-2, 71.4% record against the spread. The moneyline models also performed profitably, highlighted by the Orb’s best pick of the season so far when it predicted the Giants to upset the Browns in Cleveland at +260 odds. After missing badly on the Panthers' moneyline at +198 odds in week 2, I was worried about giving out such a low-odds prediction, but even with an implied odds of just 27.78%, Orb saw plenty of value in New York against a bad Browns offense.  While the models did have a slight +unit performance in week 1 using last year’s data as predictors, we like to start our record-keeping for the season in week 2 since it is a more accurate representation of our project. Early this season that will hurt our overall record as the models got killed in week 2 by the sportsbooks, but they fought back and showed signs of life this weekend! So while our overall +4.177 week 3 performance wasn’t quite enough to get us profitable in the early season, it made a big dent in our week 2 deficit and puts us within reasonable striking distance if the models continue to perform well on Sunday. Here is how every pick from the Orb went in week 3:

Spread:

• Giants +6.5 ✅

• Texans -2.5 ❌

• Saints -2.5 ❌

• Broncos +6.5 ✅

• Ravens -1.5 ✅

• Bills -5.5 (MNF - Premium) ✅

• Commanders +7.5 (MNF - Premium) ✅

All spread picks: 5-2, 71.4%, +2.545 units

Moneyline:

• Jets (TNF) ✅

• Giants ✅

• Colts ✅

• Texans ❌

• Saints ❌

• Buccaneers ❌

• Seahawks ✅

• Ravens ✅

• 49ers ❌

• Bills (MNF - Premium) ✅

All moneyline picks: 6-4, 60%, +1.632 units

Overall +4.177 units. A much-needed performance as we are hoping that more stable team data will continue to lead to more predictable results. I mentioned wanting to keep better track of individual model performance this season and think the best way to do this is by showing both the previous week’s results as well as how they are performing over the season to date. 

Week 3 Model Performance: 

Favorites covered 7/16 games (43.8%) and won 9/16 outright (56.3%).

Weekly spreads:

Weekly Moneyline:

Season-To-Date Model Performance: 

As mentioned above, the data in this section will be from week 2 on. For this season specifically, including week 1 data would actually improve the numbers below but it wouldn’t feel fair to do so. But similar to the official Orb pick performance, each individual model did poorly in week 2 and needed the performance numbers above in week 3 to start to bring them up to where they are now. Along with our official picks, we hope to see these numbers continue to climb out of the week 2 hole.

Not including week 1, favorites have covered 13/32 games (40.6%) and won 16/32 (50%) outright this season.

Season spreads:

Season moneyline:

Interestingly, moneyline picks have been tougher to predict than spreads. Underdogs have dominated the last two weeks which is tough for our models that tend to give out moneyline favorites more often than not due to historical dominance. This is a case where the small sample size of the last two weeks does not match the larger sample size of our training data set and can lead to bad results. This is the double-edged sword of the data world. As this season goes on, we expect the favorite vs underdog win and cover splits to better reflect historical trends. But our models, just like public sentiment, are vulnerable to small sample trends that go against the norm. That is why accuracy over a larger sample size is more indicative of model success and we are more focused on season results than any individual week or pick. A model or gambler that blindly picked every single underdog to cover the last two weeks would be hitting at 60%!

Official Orb Pick Season Results:

Season spread picks: 6-6, 50%, -0.546 units

All moneyline picks: 8-9, 47.1%, -1.973 units

If you have been following us since last season you may remember this graph but it probably looks a little unusual. That's because it is the first time you have seen what it looks like when the Orb is -units for the season! Thankfully we were able to move the -6.7 number up to -2.5 with our week 3 results and hope to continue to get it closer to the right side of the profitability line in week 4. 

Turning the page to week 4 we have a clean slate of games and last week’s winning record is no longer relevant. The markets are expecting some close games this week as 8 games have a spread within a 3-point field goal. We got some luck with what may end up being Aubrey’s only missed field goal of the year, but we are heading into a Sunday slate with a spread win as the Giants barely held on to the +5.5 spread last night. The G-men are early contenders for being the Orb’s favorite team of the year. Will favorites start to fight back or will blindly taking underdogs plus the points continue to be a winning strategy? We looked into the Orb and it is prepared for either outcome as it predicts a healthy balance:

Spread:

• Giants +5.5 (TNF - Premium) ✅

• Bengals -4.5

• Broncos +7.5

• Falcons -1.5

• Packers -2.5

• Jaguars +6.5

• Colts +1.5

Moneyline:

• Bengals

• Jets

• Falcons

• Packers

• Colts

• Eagles

• 49ers

• Chiefs

This week’s upset pick from the models is the Colts beating the 3-0 Steelers at home. Although at +106 moneyline odds as of when I am writing this, that isn’t exactly as exciting or bold of a prediction as last week’s +260 call on the Giants. Still, this one scares me as the Steelers' defense is legit, ranking 3rd in defensive EPA/Game this year. This will be a great test of Indy’s offensive line, which currently is ranked 3rd in the league by profootballnetwork and is the driving force behind the (tied for) most efficient EPA/rush running attack in the league. A Colts upset would result in +1.949 units to our weekly record between the spread and moneyline picks while a Steelers win would be -2 units. We will be keeping a close eye on this one!

Have a great Sunday and we hope next Friday’s newsletter is filled with green checkmarks again! 

- Team Orb Analytics

.

.

.

.

.

.

DISCLAIMER:

The information provided on this website is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be gambling or financial advice, and should not be relied upon as such. We are not responsible for any actions or decisions taken by readers based on the information provided on this website.

The picks and predictions provided on this website are based on our own research and analysis, and are intended to be used for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and we are not responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information for gambling or other purposes.

By accessing and using this website, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer, and you assume all risks and liabilities associated with your use of the information provided on this website.