🏀🚨NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.1.25
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Our models had a 1-2 losing performance ATS on Thursday. While a losing day is a losing day, they don’t all feel the same. We were staring down the barrel of a potential 0-3 record until the Chicago Bulls heroically beat the Lakers on a half-court buzzer-beater. If you missed the ending in that one, I highly recommend watching the last minute or so of the game.
One of the things in sports prediction modeling that I emphasize is that losing days, weeks, and even seasons are mathematically unavoidable. We are predicting the outcome of 50-50 tickets now in multiple sports, each of which has unique and inherent randomness. But in one of these inevitable losing performances, the question becomes just how bad is it? On top of hopefully winning in the long term, a huge advantage of a successful predictive model is damage control of losing performances and having a baseline accuracy more often than not. Losing a smaller portion of our beta test winnings than we would if every negative day was one or two losses worse really adds up. So while some of the winning picks in a losing performance are ‘luckier’ than others, each one matters to our season totals, and not all losing days are equal.
Here is how each pick performed on Tuesday:
Cavaliers -14.5 (-114) ❌
Wizards +12.5 (-112) ❌
Bulls +2.5 (-102) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 22-15, 59.5%, +5.3 units.
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Here is what our models predict will happen tonight:
Trailblazers +5.5 (-101)
Knicks -13.5 (-107)
Raptors +4.5 (-103)
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