NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 6.16.25
Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market
Image via https://www.oklahoman.com/
Our model hit the cover by 0.5 points as OKC won by 7. It almost felt like the Thunder stole Game 4 on the road despite winning by a comfortable margin in the end. Indiana led nearly the entire game but just couldn’t hold on down the stretch. As someone rooting for Indiana to win, but also for our model to hit its picks, I was sure we were headed straight for the worst-case scenario: the Thunder win but don’t cover. Thanks to not one, but two ‘away from the play’ fouls on Indiana that got mixed into the usual close game intentional fouling, the Thunder got sent to the line just enough to hit the magic number of 7. The model now heads into tonight 2-1 on its NBA Finals picks.
The last two games are a perfect small-sample example of how critical price is to gambling success. Our model missed on the Thunder -5.5 at +104 odds in Game 3 and then hit on them -6.5 at +105 odds in Game 4. Exactly 50% accurate, which is the expected hit rate over the long term of predicting spreads. If we had made these plays over on a big sportsbook, we would have gotten them at an average -110 price. Going 1-1 at the more expensive price would have led to a -0.091 unit loss over the two games. They know you are going to hit right around 50%, so they charge you a price that reflects a 52.4% breakeven accuracy on both sides of the spread line. Instead, we got significantly better prices on the same games, with the same outcomes on Novig’s prediction markets. Because of this, despite going 50%, we profited +0.05 units over the two games due to better prices. While the 0.141 unit difference in this example may not feel earth-shattering, expanding out the benefit of making the same plays but with better prices over an entire season is beyond significant. Sports gambling is a game mathematically rigged against the players by the books. Even if there isn’t a ‘+’ sign on one side of the spread like Games 3 and 4, every single time you can get a better price on the same line, you rebalance the odds more in your favor to win in the long run.
Thunder -6.5 (+105) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 37-33, 52.9%, +1.4 units
Playoff Record: 12-9, 57.1%, +2.5 units
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A bit of a surprise from the model tonight. Despite taking Indiana the last time we were in Oklahoma City, it is rolling with the Thunder again after what it saw in Game 4:
Thunder -9.5 (+100)
As of the time we hit send on today’s model pick, we have a perfectly efficient market for tonight’s game! There is no juice on either side of the line. Whether you like Indiana or OKC, you risk the exact same amount you stand to win. A truly fair bet at a truly fair price. This represents a true 50% breakeven on a 50% probability play in the long run. Compare this with how expensive it is to bet either side of the exact same line over on big sportsbooks:
Price makes all the difference! Whichever side you are rooting for or betting on tonight, good luck with all of your picks!
- Team Orb Analytics
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