NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.8.25

Image Credit: nbcnews.com

Our model had its first 0-for-day on Thursday as it missed on both spread predictions. Just like when we’ve hit the reverse—a clean win sweep—it was most likely to happen on a low-volume prediction day. Since both picks that the model made were at even (+100) odds on Novig, I was really hoping for a 1-1, 50% performance to highlight the impact that a truly even marketplace has for the player. Instead, we had a 0-2 performance that brought the overall model accuracy ATS down to 57.1% for our beta test.

April has seen an interesting betting trend so far. As the regular season winds down, I would have expected favorites to be the play against the spread as better teams are fighting for playoff position, while teams at the bottom are looking to improve their draft lottery odds. Of course, not every game features a playoff team vs. a tanking one, but so far underdogs have had the edge against the spread early this month. While the favorite has won outright 70% of games, underdogs are covering the spread 54% of the time. Enough that blindly picking underdogs to cover this month would be a winning strategy heading into tonight. A small but interesting trend we will keep our eyes on as we finish up the regular season and our beta test.

Here is how each pick performed on Thursday:

• 76ers +11.5 (+100) ❌

• Lakers -1.5 (+100) ❌

Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 24-18, 57.1%, +4.1 units.

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We hope the betting trend ends tonight as our model likes plenty of favorites to win big:

• Grizzlies -13.5 (-119)

• Hawks +4.5 (-115)

• Timberwolves -5.5 (-101)

• Clippers -12.5 (-112)

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Dishing + Swishing: EP19 - Sell the Sneakers, Ja

Hosted by: Mickey Swish and The Vibe Navigator

Produced by: Ari Pods

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Bonus Snapshot Analysis - Offensive vs defensive efficiency over the last 3 games:

- Team Orb Analytics

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