NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 6.19.25

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Our model hit on the Thunder -9.5 Monday Night as they won by 11 in Oklahoma City. This brings its record in the Finals to 3-1 ATS, and 13-9 in the playoffs. If the Pacers are able to win tonight and force Game 7, it will be on Sunday. With our weekday posting schedule, this means no matter what happens tonight, this post will contain the final prediction of the beta test for our NBA model. I’m going to write a full breakdown of our testing to go a little deeper into the model’s results, lessons learned from modeling the NBA for the first time, and next steps in the basketball offseason.

In my post announcing that we had been internally testing a new NBA model and wanted to turn it public-facing, I said that I wasn’t going to be too critical of the model’s accuracy. We were too early in the process to get discouraged if results were below the expected 50% accuracy rate of predicting spreads. I certainly didn’t hold this beta test to our NFL model’s standard goal of trying to hit above the 52.4% breakeven accuracy of a -110 bet. That said, heading into our 72nd and final pick of the season, I am beyond thrilled to say that, regardless of the result tonight, the NBA model has achieved a profitable accuracy above 52.4%. If the model hits on its final prediction, it will end the test with a hit rate of 54.2%, and a miss tonight leaves us at 52.8%, still clearing the high benchmark.

• Thunder -9.5 (+100) ✅

Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 38-33, 53.5%, +2.4 units

Playoff Record: 13-9, 59.1%, +3.5 units

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We have a nearly identical situation to Game 4 in which the model hit on the Thunder -6.5 in Indiana at +money odds. For its last pick of the season, the model is going back to the OKC well:

• Thunder -6.5 (+102)

I always root for our models to hit their predictions, but I have to admit I wouldn’t mind losing this one and getting to see a Game 7. OKC winning but not covering would be the worst of both worlds, meaning it has a good chance of happening. Good luck to fans and gamblers of both teams tonight!

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Check out the most recent episode of the Dishing and Swishing Podcast below!

Dishing + Swishing: EP29 - Final Finals Takes

Hosted by: Mickey Swish and The Vibe Navigator

Produced by: Ari Pods

- Team Orb Analytics

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