NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 3.4.25
The Orb models had a clean 3-0 sweep on Thursday! They have now responded to their 1-4 start by going 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 picks. One of these days, we will see a 3-2 or 2-3 type performance closer to 50%, but so far, these NBA models have been all or nothing. Thankfully, they have found themselves on the ‘all’ side twice and the ‘nothing’ side just once.
Here is how each model pick performed on Thursday:
Warriors -5.0 ✅
Hornets +9.5 ✅
Lakers -6.5 ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 8-5, 61.5%, +2.3 units
I shared our internal results in the first set of beta test picks linked here in which our models went 79-52 on overlapping picks since January 15th, good for an accuracy of 60.3% ATS. Since posting live on Tuesdays and Thursdays over an extremely small sample size of 13 picks, we have seen the models replicate this accuracy as they now sit at 61.5% ATS. Does this ‘prove’ that our NBA models are onto something and our testing results are repeatable moving forward? Of course not! But it is promising, especially after digging themselves in a 1-4 hole to start things out. More importantly, as a community of data nerds, it's really interesting! Consistent model performance from two separate time intervals (pre go-live vs post go-live) is the dream, and it so rarely happens in practice that I wanted to highlight it while it is still true. One good or bad performance tonight, and this will no longer be the case.
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Here is what our models predict will happen tonight to try and add to their hot streak:
Spreads:
Pacers -3.5
Knicks -4.5
Nets +3.5
Suns +3.0
Lakers -8.5
Dishing + Swishing: EP14 - Earn It With Meat
Hosted by: Mickey Swish and The Vibe Navigator
Produced by: Ari Pods
Image Credit: AP Photo/Matt Slocum
Bonus Snapshot Analysis - Team Rating Overview:
- Team Orb Analytics
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