🏀🚨NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.15.25

Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market

Image Credit: Goldenstateofmind.com

The very end of the regular season proved the toughest for our models to predict. While this stretch isn’t a perfect one-to-one comparison to Week 18 of the NFL season, we may have learned that moving forward, we should approach it the same way from a modeling standpoint. It's entirely possible that the NBA models we are testing for the first time simply had a significant performance decline from just a few weeks ago, but modeling future spread outcomes is difficult enough even when team data is truly representative. Suppose there are any external factors at play, like the bottom teams tanking for better draft position or the top teams testing new lineup combinations with their playoff seeding locked up. In that case, our data can’t capture everything, and we are setting our models up to fail.

So we started our regular season test with a 1-4 performance and ended with a 0-3 one. Not great! But the models performed fairly well in between and despite the disastrous book-end performances, managed to find themselves ever so slightly above the expected 50% accuracy mark.

We now enter the play-in to determine which teams will get the final playoff spots in each conference. Our goal is to continue testing the models throughout the playoffs. What is that going to look like? We aren’t entirely sure! Like every other aspect of this beta test, we are doing this to learn as many lessons as we can heading into next season. We will soon find out if our data source updates in the playoffs, which is important for trend data. If it doesn’t, would it be best to lag our training data set so the models don’t see data from the very end of the season, since most of the playoff teams will have skewed numbers to finish the year? These are all examples of what we are trying to learn between now and when a champion is crowned. We are doing it live so you can learn along with us!

Here is how each pick performed from our last day of the regular season:

• Knicks +3.5 (-110) ❌

• Pelicans +13.5 (-111) ❌

• Grizzlies +1.5 (+104) ❌

Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 25-24, 51.0%, -1.1 units.

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Our models have one overlapping pick to start things off in the play-in games:

• Grizzlies +7.5 (-115)

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Dishing + Swishing: EP20 - Playoffs. Are. Here.

Hosted by: Mickey Swish and The Vibe Navigator

Produced by: Ari Pods

👀💯 The Vibe Navigator keeps it REAL with Mickey Swish and the Los Angeles Clippers

Image Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

🎲💰 The Vibe Navigator pushes his chips in on the Detroit Pistons vs. NY Knicks

Image Credit: Nic Antaya / Getty Images

📊🏀 Mickey Swish breaks down the X’s and O’s in the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves playoff series

Image Credit: Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

🔫 🐻Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies take on the Golden State Warriors in a high-stakes play-in clash

Image Credit: Brennan Asplen via Getty Images

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- Team Orb Analytics

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