NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.10.25
Image credit: ESPN
Things looked promising early for the models on Tuesday as the Grizzlies covered the 13.5 points and the Timberwolves went into the 4th quarter up 20 points. In one of the most shocking box scores I’ve seen, Milwaukee outscored Minnesota 40 to 13 in the 4th quarter, erasing a lead that peaked at 24 points. Every game is its own independent event, but anyone who has bet on sports knows how losing one that felt like a sure winner that late in the game seems to impact your entire slate of picks. So it only felt right that in our last pick of the night, the Clippers couldn’t pull away from San Antonio, and we had another favorite win but not cover.
Ultimately, a 1-3 performance ATS, which brings the model’s overall accuracy below 55% for the first time in weeks. This is driven by an 8.3% difference in accuracy between prediction classes — with the model is hitting just 50% on favorites and 58.3% on underdogs. Assuming this holds true through end of the regular season, this is the exact type of performance area we can’t wait to look at in the offseason to try and understand why this is happening so we can try and fix it heading into next year.
Here is how each pick performed on Tuesday:
Grizzlies -13.5 (-119) ✅
Hawks +4.5 (-115) ❌
Timberwolves -5.5 (-101) ❌
Clippers -12.5 (-112) ❌
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 25-21, 54.3%, +1.9 units.
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After a losing day giving out mainly favorites, the model is overcorrecting and going back to its preferred underdogs:
Knicks +3.5 (-110)
Pelicans +13.5 (-111)
Grizzlies +1.5 (+104)
- Team Orb Analytics
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