NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 6.5.25

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The NBA Finals are here! This marks the last series of our Beta Test for the NBA model. Expanding into new sports beyond the NFL is a huge part of our roadmap for the Orb project, and doing this live test has been the first step towards that goal. So, thank you to everyone who has followed along during this testing period. We still have a ways to go, but through this, we have already learned a lot about modeling this league - its similarities and differences to modeling the NFL. We now have plenty of data to comb through and start backtesting against to tweak our model and strategy heading into next season. But before any of that happens, a champion needs to be crowned.

Congratulations and good luck to our readers from Oklahoma and Indiana! These playoffs have been much more fun to watch than they have been to model. While OKC winning the West isn’t much of a surprise, I can’t imagine too many people had the Pacers coming out of the East heading into the playoffs. That said, they fully deserve to represent the conference and have been a blast to watch.

Before we get into the model’s pick for Game 1, I quickly wanted to compare the numbers that these two teams put up on their playoff journeys to get here. This data comes from NBA.com, Basketball Reference, and Orb Analytics:

It's no shock to see the Thunder have such a large edge defensively, but I am a little surprised that Indiana is leading in so many offensive categories. Not that Pacers fans will care about covering if it doesn’t mean winning, but Indiana has also been the better bet overall in the playoffs. The Thunder have an insane home/away split and have essentially been a different team outside of the Paycom Center. They cover large spreads at home, so far with a 78% cover rate, but have yet to cover once on the road in the postseason. I thought something was wrong with our dataset when I first saw this and had to triple-check that this was true. Their largest win on the road was in Memphis by just 6-points. Meanwhile, the Pacers have covered 69% of their games so far, including 75% of the time on the road and 70% of the time as underdogs. So, for however many games we get in Oklahoma City, we have strong trends on either side of the line. 

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Hopefully a good omen for our model is that we are heading into the finals with a win from Game 5 of the ECF, where our models were on the Knicks to cover at home.

• Knicks -4.5 (+102) ✅

Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 35-32, 52.2%, +0.3 units

Playoff Record: 10-8, 55.6%, +1.4 units

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Whichever side the model was on tonight, there would be a strong trend supporting it and a strong trend opposing it. But it is taking the points in Game 1 of the new matchup:

• Pacers +9.5 (+103)

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Dishing + Swishing: EP27 - Vibe Check for the Vanquished

- Team Orb Analytics

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