NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.20.25
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Image via blazersedge.com
Our model stacked another win Thursday as it hit on the Nuggets +4.5 points. This brings our beta test overall accuracy up to 54% against the spread over its 63-pick sample size so far. Its playoff performance now sits at 9-5 ATS, good for a hit rate of 64.3% since the regular season ended. Safe to say if the season ended today, we would be thrilled about all of these numbers.
What a difference a hot or cold streak can make. Whether you have a model or just make picks yourself, small winning and losing streaks are part of the journey throughout a season. I’ve talked about it for our NFL model before, but in a perfect world, you want some level of consistency rather than big ups and downs. If your model finished the season with a 60% hit rate ATS (and therefore was one of, if not the best spread gambling model out there), you would ideally want it to go 3-2 every 5 picks rather than having clean 5-0 sweeps followed by 1-4 performances. But predicting something with an expected hit rate of 50% is too difficult and random, which is why we have to remember to zoom out and take winning or losing streaks in the context of a season as a whole, rather than either being a fair representation of a model’s predictive power.
While hitting picks in the playoffs so far has been fun, I can’t say that modeling them has been all that interesting. The 7-game series format is great for determining who the better team is and who deserves to advance to the next round. But repetitive matchups can lead to repetitive picks from a model. Particularly in a series like we just had with OKC vs. Denver. Since team level data isn’t changing at this point in the season, the only factors that are different game-to-game are the market line and who is playing at home. The Thunder were favorites in every game, so one of the two inputs that could change did not. A series like the Knicks-Pistons gave us different favorites game to game so it had a little more intrigue into who the model liked each time. Hopefully the conference finals prove to be more interesting, but just as profitable, as the last round.
Nuggets +4.5 (-103) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 34-29, 54.0%, +2.3 units
Playoff Record: 9-5, 64.3%, +3.4 units
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Here is what our model predicts tonight:
Timberwolves +7.5 (-107)
Dishing + Swishing: EP24 - In Memoriam of the Boston Celtics
Image Credit: News.harvard.edu
Image Credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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