🏀🔥NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.18.25
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Image Credit: Athlonsports.com
The models had a winning start to the playoffs on Tuesday as they hit on the Grizzlies covering. The market for this game on Novig moved all over the place as we got this one out. When we ran the models and I originally wrote up the newsletter, the line was Memphis +6.5, and they had +110 odds to cover that number. In the short amount of time that we took to hit post, the line moved to Memphis +7.5, so the models liked them even more getting a full extra point, but the odds to cover the new line dropped to -115. They lost the game by 5, meaning they would have covered either number, but we lost a significant amount of winnings at the new price. Ultimately, a good problem to have as a winning pick is a winning pick for our beta test.
Grizzlies +7.5 (-115) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 26-24, 52.0%, -0.2 units.
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Our models continue to over-index and like the underdogs once again tonight:
Heat +1.5 (-109)
Mavericks +5.5 (-105)
Bonus Snapshot Analysis:
Heading into the playoffs, I wanted to see how these teams have done from a gambling perspective. Here is a breakdown of all the playoff teams’ (including the ones playing tonight for the last spot in each conference) cover rates against the spread. First, we look at how they’ve done ATS at home vs on the road and then at their cover splits as favorites vs as underdogs. The data below is only for 2025, meaning starting 01/01/2025:
Only two (2) playoff-eligible teams have been profitable against a standard -110 spread bet regardless of where they played since the new year. OKC has unsurprisingly been a money printer and has the overall highest cover rate ATS coming off one of the best regular seasons the league has seen. You may be as surprised as I was to see that the other team in Quadrant 1 is the Atlanta Hawks. I noticed our models picked them a few times that they lined up with our Tuesday/Thursday posting schedule, and now I see why the models liked them so much.
A few other noteworthy trends: So far in 2025, the Lakers, Clippers, and Bucks have all been significantly better bets at home than they have been on the road. On the flipside, teams like the Warriors, Magic, and Cavaliers have all been profitable bets on the road, but not when playing at home.
The markets continue to be hyper-efficient regardless of what sport we create models for. The Lakers, Rockets, and Nuggets all ever so slightly find themselves in Quadrant 1, meaning they have been covered the spread above 52.4% of the time as both favorites and underdogs in 2025. OKC is once again an outlier in terms of cover rate as a favorite, meaning bettors should not have been afraid of the big number that the markets give them to cover. According to our records, they have only been underdogs twice so far in 2025, on the road in both Cleveland and Boston.
The Clippers are the other outlier to highlight, as they have been the best bet when getting points against a ‘superior’ opponent. It will be interesting to see if the regular season betting trends continue into the postseason.
- Team Orb Analytics
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