NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 6.13.25
Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market
Image via oklahoman.com
Indiana takes another one! Our model completely misread game 3 as it backed the Thunder to win by 6+ points. Not only did they not cover the spread, but they lost outright and now trail 2-1 in the series heading into tonight. This matchup has already given us more excitement and drama than most fans expected. Heading into Game 1, the series spread was OKC -2.5 games, meaning the market was split on whether Indiana could even win 2 games and avoid getting swept or losing 4-1. Just three games into the finals and the Pacers have already covered that line. The odds for the Thunder to win the series (in any amount of games) was -800 which reflects an 88.9% chance. While the series is far from over, the current line to win the series is OKC -230, meaning they are still heavy favorites but this price reflects a drop to a 69.7% probability.
While the model is 1-1 on the finals so far, the good news for us at Orb Analytics is that someone at this company does know how to bet on championship. If you missed his picks on our NBA podcast ‘Dishing and Swishing’ co-host Jesse ‘The Vibe Navigator’ is (somehow) 5-0 on his finals picks so far including Pacers moneyline in Game 1 (+320) and Indiana +2.5 games in the series (+108). You can find the last episode in which he gave out Tyrese Haliburton OVER 25.5 Points + Assists (-128)✅ ahead of Game 3 linked here. I cannot emphasize enough how non data-driven his picks are, but so far in the finals ‘vibes’ have been a much stronger predictor than the numbers.
Thunder -5.5 (+104) ❌
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 36-33, 52.2%, +0.4 units
Playoff Record: 11-9, 55.0%, +1.5 units
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Based on how our classification model is built, a similar market to last game will lead to the same prediction. It is being consistent and backing OKC once again on the road tonight:
Thunder -6.5 (+105)
- Team Orb Analytics
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