NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 6.11.25
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Image via oklahoman.com
Indiana didn’t need any of the 9.5 points they got in Game 1 as they upset the Thunder in Oklahoma City and won outright. Thankfully, Game 2 was over the weekend, so we didn’t run the model for OKC’s 16 point win as we would have been on the wrong side of that one. If you don’t watch a ton of NBA but have tuned into the finals, you got the full story of both of these teams so far. The Pacers and their ability to force crazy comebacks and win close games, and OKC then looking like no one in the league could match them in a blowout win.
The win on Thursday increased the model’s overall accuracy to 52.9% ATS and the playoff record to 57.9%. It was also the 2nd spread win in a row that we got at +money odds thanks to the efficiency of the market on Novig. I am hoping we see similar levels of efficiency in the NFL markets this season. The last two NBA model picks averaged +102.5 odds, which lowers our breakeven target accuracy from 52.38% to 49.38% across the 2-game sample. Not that I am expecting every game to have a plus-sign on one side of the spread, but every single pick that is better than -110 odds gives us a better chance at winning in the long run.
Pacers +9.5 (+103) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 36-32, 52.9%, +1.4 units
Playoff Record: 11-8, 57.9%, +2.5 units
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With a new venue and lower line, the model is flipping its prediction and going with OKC to get their first cover on the road this playoff:
Thunder -5.5 (+104)
Be on the lookout for this week’s episode of Dishing and Swishing dropping later today on the page!
- Team Orb Analytics
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