🏀🚨NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.22.25

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Image Credit: AP Photo/Nate Billings

A 1-1 day hitting the expected 50% against the spread brings our playoff record to 2-1. The models got great positive closing cline value (CLV) on the Miami pick as this line moved from Heat +1.5 to Heat -2.5 by tipoff, depending on what book you were using. It turned out to be the most fun game of the Play-In, and the Heat pulled away in overtime to give our models the win. Dallas, unfortunately, was not as kind to the Orb model as that game never got close enough for the 5.5 point spread to be covered.

With our matchups set and underway, we now have our first-ever model picks on round 1 NBA games tonight.

• Heat +1.5 (-109) ✅

• Mavericks +5.5 (-105) ❌

Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 27-25, 51.9%, -0.3 units.

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After picking underdogs in the Play-In, our models are backing the favorites tonight:

• Lakers -5.5 (-105)

• Thunder -14.5 (-105)

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Bonus Snapshot Analysis:

With the majority of teams having only played one game so far in the playoffs, postseason data is not very interesting to visualize with a single datapoint. So instead, I wanted to take a look at how each team stacks up to the playoff competition based on their more significant 82-game sample. Here are the final efficiency numbers from each remaining team, as well as how they compare to their playoff peers:

We have four teams in Quadrant 1, meaning they are above average both offensively and defensively compared to the rest of the playoff teams. Minnesota and Cleveland each just make the cutoff as both are near playoff-average on one side of the ball. But OKC is the real story here. They find themselves with an acre of space between them and the next-best overall efficiency team. In the NFL, we saw the Eagles enter the playoffs in a similar position compared to the rest of the postseason field and dominate their way to a Super Bowl. Will the same be true for the Thunder? The efficiency data is certainly on their side.

After last night’s slate, each team has played at least one game, with four teams playing game two of their series. Heading into more game twos tonight, we have an interesting breakdown of the Win-Loss record by Quadrant so far:

Quadrant 1 (upper right): 4-0

Quadrant 2 (upper left): 2-3

Quadrant 3 (lower left): 1-4

Quadrant 4 (lower right): 3-3

It's far too small a sample size to take any meaningful insights away, but through at least 1 playoff game each, efficiency has been a great indicator of success. Every team in Quadrant 1 (above playoff average on both offense and defense) is 1-0 to start their series, while every team in Quadrant 3 (below playoff average on both offense and defense) is 0-1 except the Pistons who are 1-1 after upsetting the Knicks in New York last night.

The more interesting comparison to me is Quadrants 2 and 4. If your team can only be above average on one side of the ball, would you prefer it to be on offense or defense? In the NFL playoffs, we say the Quadrant 4 teams dominate the Quadrent 2 teams, meaning that just an elite offense was more impactful than just an elite defense. After last night, these two areas of the graph are 3-3 and 2-3, respectively. Of course, this isn’t a perfect comparison, as the only direct matchup we have between teams in Quadrents 2 and 4 is Clippers-Nuggets, which is now tied up at 1-1 with both games coming down to the last second.

I’m curious to see if either Quadrent will pull away from the other record-wise and start to give an indication of which side of the ball you would rather be elite at in the NBA playoffs. There is no single metric that can determine which team might win a game (or cover a spread), but team-level efficiency almost perfectly correlated with the results of the first round of games over the weekend.

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Dishing + Swishing: EP21 - Tears, Takes, and the First Round

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Produced by: Ari Pods

Image Credit: AP Photo/Nate Billings

Image Credit: AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Image Credit: AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

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- Team Orb Analytics

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