🏀🔥NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 3.25.25
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Image Credit: Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images
One of the many lessons we are learning in real time about modeling the NBA is last-minute player availability. Unlike the weekly cadence of the NFL, these teams play multiple games each week, with more chances for in-game injuries and a decreased value of each individual game to the team. This results in players with non long-term injuries often being listed as a ‘game-time-decision’ which so far has been a total crap-shoot on whether or not they play.
We saw this play out last Tuesday as the Celtics had their best player scratched right before tip-off, leading to the only miss of the day from our models. It happened again on Thursday in Los Angeles. When we ran the models and gave out the picks, the Lakers were 2.5-point underdogs to Milwaukee. Between releasing our picks and tip-off of the game, Luka Doncic (and seemingly every other starter) was ruled out, and the line moved all the way to Lakers +8.5. Talk about negative closing line value! The pick was dead in the water before the game even started. Our models split on their other two picks, resulting in a 1-2 losing performance ATS.
I mention all this not to complain about a specific pick that missed. As we saw with the other picks, the models will both hit and miss on games when everyone is available and the data fairly represents the teams on the court. Predicting the future is difficult, even when every player is healthy and available. Instead, I say it to highlight an example of the obstacles we run into when diving into a new sport. Like many of the challenges we have faced so far over the years in the NFL, we simply will have to find a way to minimize the risk and give our models their best chance to succeed.
Here is how each pick performed on Thursday:
Pacers -8.5 (-115) ❌
Bulls +7.5 (-118) ✅
Lakers +2.5 (-104) ❌
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 18-12, 60.0%, +4.4 units.
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Here is what our models predict will happen tonight:
Hornets +5.5 (-107)*
Pistons -10.5 (-110)
Heat +5.5 (+100)*
Knicks -10.5 (-103)
* Better odds on Novig over traditional sportsbooks on the same line
Dishing + Swishing: EP17 - Bracket Busters + the Bourbon Trail
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