NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.6.25
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Image via nbcsportsbayarea
The market nailed the line for the Clippers-Nuggets game 6 as Los Angeles won by 6 but did not cover the 6.5-point spread. A tough loss for our model, but I can’t be too harsh on it for missing a pick by 0.5 points, especially when this is our first time testing out NBA modeling. While we have a lot to learn and look at this offseason, my first attempt at our NFL model certainly didn’t yield the 57.1% overall record against the spread that it now has after the necessary ups and downs of learning to predict a new sport. The testing process for the NBA just happens to be more public (which was our intention), so you get to learn along with us in real time.
More importantly, the loss on Thursday brings our testing model’s accuracy down to exactly 50%. Since this is the expected accuracy of predicting spreads over a large sample, it's safe to say that we have used all of our data and predictive algorithms to build a coin flip! Our long-term goal for any of our models is to predict better than heads or tails when picking 50% outcomes, but as of today, that is what version 1.0 of our NBA model has done.
These playoffs have been so fun and unpredictable that I am not too surprised our model has struggled in the postseason. The #2 and #3 seeds in the West (Rockets and Lakers) both got upset and bounced from the playoffs in Round 1. Then, over the last two days, the top 3 overall record teams in the league (Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics) all lost their first game of Round 2 and gave up home-court advantage moving forward. We haven’t always gotten this level of parity in the NBA playoffs, so let’s all enjoy the madness while it's happening.
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 29-29, 50.0%, -2.4 units
Playoff Record: 4-5, 44.4%, -1.3 units
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Here is what our model predicts will happen tonight:
Warriors +6.5 (-105)
Bonus Snapshot Analysis:
Let’s take a look at how the eight remaining teams have done for gamblers so far in the playoffs. The Thunder, Cavaliers, and Celtics haven’t been underdogs yet in a game, so we will just look at Home vs. Away betting splits rather than as Favorites vs as Underdogs:
Some interesting trends so far. Denver has been the only team profitable against a -110 spread bet regardless of where they have played. Minnesota at home, and the Knicks and Cavaliers away, have been the best bets so far in the postseason. Since all these teams won four games in the first round and have each played one or fewer games in the second round, it's not surprising that we only have one team in Quadrant 3 that has covered exactly 50% of the time both home and away.
- Team Orb Analytics
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