🏀✅ NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 4.24.25
Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market
Image Credit: Detroit Free Press
The Orb models had a clean 2-0 sweep! After leaning on underdogs and going 2-1 in the Play-In games, they backed the favorites on Tuesday and hit both picks. This brings our overall accuracy for our beta test above the all-important 52.4% mark, and increases our playoff record to 4-1 against the spread.
Why are the models off to a hot start in the postseason? Well, the simplest explanation would be it is just that - a hot streak. With just 5 picks, there are only 6 record combinations possible, and 4-1 is one of them. However, there is a more optimistic view that we can take. The models were performing extremely well heading into the last week or two of the regular season. At the time, I noted that their hit rate was unsustainably good and finishing the season near or above 60% accuracy was improbable. I expected them to drop in performance due to the math of predicting 50-50 outcomes, and having played this game many times before with our NFL model. The very end of the season proved tricky for our models to predict, as many of the best teams rested players heading into the playoffs, and many of the bad teams were aiming for better draft odds. But the models performed well prior to this period, and over an extremely small sample size, they are performing well after it. So even though we stated accuracy is not the main focus of our beta test for these new models, there are promising signs for what we have built so far, especially when the games ‘matter’ to both teams and therefore give us the best chance at succeeding. Only time will tell!
Lakers -5.5 (-105) ✅
Thunder -14.5 (-105) ✅
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 29-25, 53.7%, +1.6 units
Playoff Record: 4-1, 80.0%, +2.7 units
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Here is what our model predicts tonight:
Pistons +1.5 (-103)
Thunder -9.5 (-108)
- Team Orb Analytics
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