NBA Model Beta Test Results + Picks: 5.1.25
Presented by Novig – America’s #1 Sports Prediction Market
Image via the Denver Post
The models missed on the Knicks Tuesday as the Pistons won outright as 5.5 point underdogs to extend the series. Modeling a new sport, we continue to learn and identify what we need to focus on in the offseason, and an area to look at is series. In the NFL, the most that two teams can play each other is three times, and that is on the rare occasion that division rivals meet in the playoffs. Even more rare is that these teams just played each other the game prior. For the first time during our NBA beta test, we are running models on teams that play each other back-to-back up to seven times in a row. In the Knicks-Pistons series, we saw the models pick the Pistons as underdogs in game 4, and then flip to the Knicks as favorites in game 5. Of course, it missed on both. However, since team-level data stayed constant this far into the season, the only changes were where this game was being played and the market line. So we know our models are dynamic enough to not just lock onto one team for an entire series (although they could do this for other matchups) but when so many predictors are constant in a way that our NFL models haven’t had to deal with, what is the best way to handle game-to-game changes in a 7-game series? This is exactly the type of question we hope to answer this offseason. Until then, all we can do is collect more data!
Knicks -5.5 (-102) ❌
Live Beta Test Overall Record ATS: 29-28, 50.9%, -1.4 units
Playoff Record: 4-4, 50.0%, -0.3 units
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Tonight, our models turn to LA and expect the Clippers to bounce back big and even the series:
Clippers -6.5 (-103)
Thankfully, our models don’t have a pick in the Knicks-Pistons game to be wrong three times in a row. But if you wanted to make a play on that game, think about doing it on Novig. Here are the odds for game 6 on Novig compared to an unnamed big sportsbook:
Whichever side you like, New York or Detroit, each has better odds on Novig at the same -1.5 spread. On the big sportsbook, the spread odds average -110 compared to on Novig where they average -102.5 (as of the time of writing this) and instantly have more value for the player. Even the moneyline is better for both teams! So blindly making a pick on either team, spread or moneyline, is a higher value play for this game than it is on a traditional book before they even tip off. Using our code is also a great way to help support our page, so please consider a win-win opportunity.
Bonus Snapshot Analysis:
We hear about individual players being ‘playoff risers’ meaning they rise to the occasion and play better in the playoffs than they do in the regular season. But what about teams as a whole? Heading into the playoffs, we broke down the overall efficiency of the playoff teams compared to their peers. The results were fascinating and so far have turned out to be great predictors of first-round outcomes. Now we want to take a look at how teams have played so far on both sides of the ball compared to their own regular-season average. NBA playoffs don’t offer perfect time splits between rounds, as some first-round series are over while others are still being decided and may take multiple more games. So this data isn’t a perfect representation of the first round as a whole, but is a comparison as of yesterday, April 30th:
Cleveland immediately jumps off the charts. As a team, and a #1 seed at that, they have raised their level on both offense and defense more than any other team so far in the playoffs. The only other team that is trending positively on both sides of the ball is Indiana. Both these teams won their first-round series and are now matched up in the second round.
Every team that played worse on both sides of the ball than they did in the regular season has been eliminated, with the one exception being Denver. As of the time I am writing this, every team that has raised their level of play on at least one side of the ball is still alive in their series or has already won it. So just making the playoffs and staying at or below your standard isn’t good enough to not go home early, unless you happen to have Jokic on your roster.
- Team Orb Analytics
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